Trends in Higher Education

President Clinton and Vice President Gore have worked hard to expand college opportunity, and our country has seen remarkable results. As the benefits of college, high academic standards, and student aid grow, so too do high school and college completion rates. Although a "college opportunity gap" still faces many minority and low-income students, our society is making headway in promoting equal educational opportunity for all our citizens.

The Benefits of Postsecondary Education

The real rate of return on a college investment is 12 percent— nearly twice the historical average of the stock market. This figure is based on only earnings; the documented benefits of higher education such as job benefits, better health, and more informed investments and purchases might double the value of higher education. Finally, society’s return on its investment in higher education, in higher tax revenues and lower crime and welfare rates, is also roughly 12 percent.^[17]

The economic power of higher education is growing steadily, especially for women, as technology and knowledge increasingly drive our nation’s economy. Whereas young men and women in 1980 who completed at least a bachelor’s degree earned 19 percent and 52 percent more, respectively, than their peers with no more than a high school diploma, by 1998 the earnings gap had grown to 56 percent among men and 100 percent among women. In other words, women with a bachelor’s or higher degree now earn twice as much as women with no more than a high school diploma. Similarly, young adults with only a high school diploma earned 30 percent more than young adults who dropped out of high school.^[18]

Jobs that require a college degree are growing twice as fast as others. The 20 occupations with the highest earnings all require at least a bachelor’s degree.^[19] The growing importance of education is illustrated by the demand for technology skills: In 1997, for example, information-technology workers earned 78 percent more than workers in all industries combined—up from 56 percent above average in 1989.^[20]

Higher levels of education encourage additional education over a lifetime—an increasingly important activity in an age of rapid technological and economic change.

• Overall, among adults age 18 or older, participation in some type of formal learning activity during the past 12 months rose from 38 percent in 1991 to 50 percent in 1999.
• In 1999, 65 percent of adults with a bachelor’s or higher degree participated in a formal learning activity within the past 12 months, compared to only 41 percent of those with a high school diploma and only 27 percent of those who had finished middle school but not high school.^[21]

Finally, higher levels of education are associated with more active citizenship. In the 1998 congressional elections, college graduates between 25 and 44 years old were 77 percent more likely to vote than high school graduates. High school dropouts were 52 percent less likely to vote than high school graduates. Voting patterns in the 1996 presidential election were similar.^[22]

High School Dropout and Completion Rates

Fewer students drop out of school than in the 1980s and 1970s. During the 1990s, around 11 to 12 percent of 16- to 24-year-olds had not completed a high school program and were not enrolled in school, compared to 13 percent to 14 percent in the 1980s and over 14 percent in the 1970s. In 1998 and 1999, around 88 percent of 25- to 29-year-olds had completed high school.

Progress has been especially strong among African Americans, whose high school completion rate now slightly exceeds the national average. While there has been some progress, the dropout rate among Hispanic youth remains too high. During the 1990s, around 30 percent of Hispanic 16- to 24-year-olds had not completed a high school program and were not enrolled in school, down only slightly from around 33 percent during the 1970s.^[23]

College Preparedness

Academic intensity of students high school curriculum is a dominant determinant of whether they will earn a college degree, according to U.S. Department of Education research. Rigor of curriculum is a better predictor of college completion than test scores or class rank and GPA, and the positive impact of the high school curriculum is far more pronounced for African-American and Hispanic students than any other pre-college indicator of academic resources.^[24]

So it is heartening that students who finish high school are better prepared for college than they were a decade ago. Between 1990 and 1998, the percentage of high school graduates who have taken four years of English and three years each of math, science, and social studies increased from 38 percent to 55 percent, with large increases across all racial and ethnic groups.^[25]

Advanced Placement test-taking is at an all-time high. In 1999, over 704,000 students took college-level AP exams; 55 percent of the test-takers were women and 30 percent were minority students, including the highest proportions of African American and Hispanic students ever. Fifty-six percent of high schools offer AP classes today, compared to only 40 percent in 1989.^[26] As a result, more students are entering college with experience in college-level curriculum than ever before.

Scores on the Scholastic Assessment Test are rising. SAT scores, especially in math, have gone up over the past 10 years, and the number of test-takers reached an all-time high last year—even as a larger and more diverse group of students took the test. Average verbal and math scores have risen among all racial and ethnic groups except Mexican Americans and Hispanics/Latinos.^[27]

College Enrollment and Educational Attainment

High school graduates are enrolling in college in record numbers. The percentage of high school graduates going straight to college rose from 60 percent in 1990 to 66 percent in 1998. These rates of college-going exceed comparable rates during the 1980s, when only 50 percent to 60 percent of high school graduates immediately enrolled in college.

Much of this progress is due to substantial increases in college attendance among women, who now go straight to college at higher rates than men. Lower-income students continue to go straight to college at significantly lower rates than higher-income students, and African Americans and Hispanics go straight to college at lower rates than whites. Nevertheless, the gaps have narrowed somewhat since the mid-1980s and, for the first time, a majority of young African-Americans is enrolling in higher education^[28]

More Americans are earning college degrees. The percentage of 25- to 29-year-olds with a bachelor’s or higher degree rose from 27 percent in 1990 to over 32 percent in 1999. Progress among white women account for much of this gain; while less than 29 percent of white women had completed a bachelor’s degree in 1990, over 37 percent had done so in 1999. African American women have also made substantial progress; around 19 percent had completed a bachelor’s degree in 1999, up from 13 percent to 14 percent at the start of the decade. However, African American men and Hispanic men and women have not shown consistently strong gains over this period. The rates of degree attainment for these groups continue to hover at roughly half the rates for whites.^[29]

Educational attainment among women increased rapidly over the past decade, continuing a trend beginning in the 1970s. Their rates of educational attainment have increased more rapidly than rates among men. By 1999, among 25- to 29-year-olds, women had higher rates than men for completing high school and some college, and there were no differences in the percentages of men and women with a bachelor’s or higher degree.^[30]

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