We project that we will continue to set new enrollment records through 2006. By 2008, we estimate that 54.3 million young people will be attending school. Unlike at the end of the "baby boom" of the 1950s and 1960s, we will gain no respite from the current enrollment boom, as births will begin edging up from 4.1 million in 2008 to 4.5 million in 2018. The long-term implications of this immense wave of young people going to school require educators and community leaders to recognize that short-term solutions -- symbolized by the ever-present portable classrooms in countless school yards -- may not be sufficient to the task at hand.

Another record is being broken this year as millions of Americans go back to school. This year marks a new college enrollment record as well. We project that college enrollment will jump from 14,350,000 in 1997 to 14,590,000 -- an increase of 240,000 students. This should not come as a surprise, with 65 percent of all high school graduates now immediately going on to college and millions of adult Americans going back to college to brush up on their skills.

Closing the Gap in Fulton County, Georgia Fulton County School District in Georgia is part of suburban Atlanta. One of the fastest growing school districts in the nation, Fulton County has built 18 new schools in the last ten years and will need to build 17 additional schools (14 elementary and 3 middle schools) to close the gap and meet enrollment needs in the next five years. Thirty-five of the school district's 36 elementary schools are over capacity, and overcrowding is most significant in North Fulton County. The school district is projecting an enrollment increase of 3,500 students a year, which is 32 percent higher than estimated capacity. The district currently uses 327 trailers as classrooms. In March 1997, Fulton County voters approved a one-cent Special Purpose Local Option Sales Tax to build and modernize local schools.

Enrollment pressures that are now affecting America's elementary and secondary schools will soon begin to be felt in our nation's colleges and universities as the number of public high school graduates increases by 17 percent in the next ten years. The state of California has the extraordinary task of educating an additional 537,000 high school students between 1998 and 2008. Texas will have close to 200,000 additional teenagers going to high school during the same period, and New York State, which recently raised its high school standards, will have close to one million young people in high school in 2008.

Record-breaking student enrollments and the expected increases during the next ten years bring with them the need for many more teachers. New estimates suggest that the nation's schools will need to hire about 2.2 million teachers over the next decade to meet the demands of the baby boom echo and the growing number of teacher retirements.

This need for more teachers will put pressure on school districts to lower their standards and hire unqualified individuals. Twenty-seven percent of newly hired teachers in the United States enter the profession without having fully met state licensing standards. School districts already face a shortage of qualified mathematics, science, special education and bilingual teachers. Unlike schools in other industrialized nations, school districts in America routinely assign teachers to teach outside of their field. As a result, almost a third of all teachers are teaching in a field in which they do not even have a minor.

Shortages of qualified teachers are being felt in many types of communities. In some of them, these shortages are due in large part to teachers retiring or resigning. Others, such as communities in California, Nevada, Florida and Texas whose populations are increasing rapidly, face great demand for increasing numbers of qualified teachers. Our nation's high-poverty urban and rural communities face the greatest shortages of qualified teachers. Schools in these areas will need more than 700,000 teachers in the next ten years.

If hiring remains the same, one-half to two-thirds of the 2.2 million teachers hired in the next decade will be first-time teachers. Thus, it is more important than ever that new teachers be well prepared so that they are able to teach all students to high standards. They must also receive strong professional support as they begin their teaching careers so that they remain in the teaching profession and continue to develop their skills. Because many new teachers do not receive the support they need, 22 percent leave the profession within the first three years.

Setting one new national record in a year is always interesting, but setting two in one year -- for elementary and secondary school enrollment and for college enrollment -- should require American policy makers to step back and think about the many new demands of this "Education Era." One of the first implications is that policy makers need to better reflect the interest of the American people in education. Put simply, America needs to build many more schools, modernize thousands that are in disrepair, and train and hire 2.2 million teachers.

Building New Schools with Good Design in Mind Even though Vancouver School District is the oldest school district in Washington State and not affluent (45 percent of its students qualify for the federal subsidized meal program), it is meeting the challenge of school overcrowding and developing a national reputation for building new schools with great distinction. With a 31 percent increase in school-age children in the last ten years, Vancouver voters have twice gone to the polls to pass substantial bond issues, enabling the district to build 8 new schools and retrofit or expand 11 others. Two of the new schools -- Skyview High School in 1997 and the Discovery Middle School in 1996 -- received national honors for architectural design. The district has also invested $38 million in computer and technology infrastructure since 1990 and maintains more than 400 business and community partnerships.

As I stated in last year's report, there is no short-term solution to this long-term problem. The impact of baby boomers having babies later and increased immigration began to be felt in 1985. Now, 13 years later, the full force of rising enrollments is hitting thousands of school districts across the country. While much of this growth is concentrated in large states like California, Texas and Florida and gateway cities like New York, Los Angeles and Miami, the majority of states are facing the impact of an increased number of additional children showing up for each new school year.

Even in the Midwest where the school population is increasing modestly, and in some cases actually declining, numerous suburban school districts are facing record-breaking enrollment pressures. In Blue Valley School District in Overland Park, Kansas, enrollment has increased from 14,403 students in 1996 to 15,900 in 1998. In Rosemount-Apple School District in Rosemount, Minnesota, enrollment has increased by 1,713 students in the last two years. Enrollment in Rockwood School District in Eureka, Missouri has jumped by over 1,000 students since 1996. Missouri, Minnesota and Illinois are three states that are sprinkled with rapidly growing suburban school districts.

GAO Report: $112 Billion in Unmet Needs In a 1995 report, School Facilities: Condition of America's Schools, the General Accounting Office (GAO) estimated that billions of dollars were needed to upgrade and retrofit America's school buildings. According to the report, some 14 million students are enrolled in 25,000 of the nation's schools reporting extensive repair or replacement needs. About 60 percent of all schools report needing at least one major building feature to be replaced or extensively repaired. According to GAO, almost 12 million students attend schools with less-than-adequate roofs, 12 million students attend schools with less-than-adequate plumbing, and 15 million students attend schools with less-than-adequate heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems. GAO surveyed 10,000 schools and visited 41 schools in ten districts. Many of the specific facility problems cited by GAO are in overcrowded schools. In response to overcrowding, one district built temporary buildings that are now showing signs of major structural damage. Other districts have housed students in such temporary buildings for many years, used a large number of portable classrooms, and converted areas meant for other purposes into classrooms. These temporary solutions are problematic. GAO reported that 28 percent of all temporary buildings were in less-than-adequate condition, a higher percentage than for original buildings or permanent additions. Several of the ten districts GAO visited reported that overcrowding due to an increasing school-age population was a problem. With the surge in school enrollment expected to continue into the future, finding solutions to the problem of inadequate facilities becomes even more urgent. Just as districts around the country face the problem of their schools falling down around them, their school-age populations are increasing and this growth shows no signs of slowing down in the long-term.

The great wave of new students filling our nation's classrooms is placing pressure on large urban school districts and suburban school districts across the country. In the New York City school system, enrollment increased by 121,803 students between 1985 and 1995 and now tops one million students. Dade County School District, covering Miami, Florida -- like New York City a gateway for new immigrants -- saw a 41 percent increase in its school-age population between 1985 and 1995.

Just up the Atlantic coast in Florida, Broward County School District ranks third in the nation in terms of overall growth. Enrollment grew by an average of 8,700 students per year in the last five years to 223,633 students in 1998. Between 1990 and 1995, Broward County built 21 schools and became the "portable" capital of the United States, with 2,000 portable classrooms currently in use. Recent state mandates to retire portable classrooms will Aexacerbate overcrowding," according to Broward District demographer Arthur Wittman.

Enrollment Growth in Las Vegas Clark County School District in Nevada, which includes the expanding city of Las Vegas, comprises an area of land bigger than the entire state of New Jersey, and faces extraordinary pressures to keep up with new residents and their children. Enrollment jumped from 176,000 students in 1996 to 202,388 in 1998 and the district expects to have about 330,000 students in school by 2007. On average, the school district must find classroom space for an additional 12,000 to 15,000 students a year. The school district is currently spending $1.8 billion to build new schools and retrofit old ones and it is not uncommon to open between 8 and 15 new schools a year. This November, voters will go to the polls to vote on a $3.2 billion bond issue.

Much of the growth in our nation's schools is suburban in nature, as evidenced by the list of suburban districts on page 21. School districts as diverse as Polk in Florida (75,361 students), Plano in Texas (43,880 students), Jordan in Utah ( 72,887 students) and Elk Grove in California (41,991 students) are all confronting rapidly growing enrollment. Fairfax County Public Schools in Virginia (148,681 students), just outside the nation's capital, is a school district with a well-deserved reputation for excellence. The challenge that Fairfax faces is to maintain that excellence even as it manages an almost 20 percent increase in student population.

Hillsborough School District in Florida, which includes the city of Tampa and the surrounding area, has seen its enrollment increase from 143,884 in 1996 to 152,642 in 1998 and expects an average enrollment increase of 5,000 students per year for the next seven years. Hillsborough expects to build 9 more schools in the next five years and 12 more if funding becomes available. Pasco School District in Florida, largely rural and suburban in nature, is growing at a rate of 1,800 to 2,000 students per year. One new school is opening this year and five more are due to open in the next three to four years. In the meantime, Pasco is housing some 8,000 students in portable classrooms. School officials there hope to end this heavy reliance on portables given the fact that it is more cost efficient to build new schools.

Crowded Classrooms in Suburban Denver In Jefferson School District in Colorado, on the suburban outskirts of Denver, 13 new schools have been built since 1990, 9 others have been replaced, and the district has plans to modernize 43 others by 2002, with a capital improvement budget of $425.5 million. The district currently has 503 portable classrooms. Most elementary classes have 25 to 29 students and high school classes have as many as 30 or more students per class.

As I travel around America from school to school, I am struck by the depth of concern that so many parents have regarding the education of their children. Common sense tells these parents that crowded classrooms make no sense and that their children are losing the individual attention they deserve and need. Parents also recognize that a society that builds immaculate prisons but crowds its children into outdated school buildings is making a clear statement about its priorities. Here I am reminded of a statement by Plato -- "that which is honored in a country is that which will be cultivated there." Are we prepared to honor our children by giving them the best education possible?

I believe that the American people are tuned into education and want the best for their children. And this I know for sure -- the need to build new schools and modernize old ones, and to provide our children with smaller classes and talented, dedicated, and well-prepared teachers is something that transcends urban, suburban and rural boundaries. America's schools are overcrowded and wearing out. This is why I believe the American people are prepared to support the goals of modernizing our nation's schools with first-rate facilities and technology, reducing class size, and recruiting talented and caring Americans of all ages into teaching.

Richard W. Riley
U.S. Secretary of Education

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