A r c h i v e d  I n f o r m a t i o n

A Back to School Special Report on the Baby Boom Echo: America's Schools Are Overcrowded and Wearing Out -- (September 8, 1998)

The Baby Boom Echo Continues


This year...

Total public and private school enrollment will rise to a record 52.7 million; and

Total public and private 2- and 4-year college enrollment will rise to a record 14.6 million.

Between 1988 and 2008...

Public high school enrollment is expected to increase by 26 percent, while public elementary school enrollment is projected to increase by 17 percent;

The number of public high school graduates will increase by 11 percent;

Seventeen states will have at least a 15 percent increase in the number of public high school graduates, with a 126 percent increase projected for Nevada, 55 percent for Arizona, and 47 percent for Florida; and

Full-time college enrollment is projected to rise by 29 percent.

Between 1998 and 2008...

Public high school enrollment is expected to increase by 11 percent, while public elementary school enrollment is projected to return to 1998 levels, decreasing by less than one percent;

The number of public high school graduates will increase by 17 percent;

Twenty states will have at least a 15 percent increase in the number of public high school graduates, with a 78 percent increase projected for Nevada, 39 percent for Hawaii, and 38 percent for Florida;

Largely because of the high school enrollment increase, the total number of new teaching positions for public and private high school teachers is expected to rise by 115,000 -- a 9 percent increase; a total of 2.2 million public school teachers will need to be hired over the period to accommodate new students as well as to replace those teachers who retire or leave the profession for other reasons; and

Full-time college enrollment is projected to rise by 15 percent.

Beyond 2008...

In contrast to the post-baby boom era, when the number of births declined to 3.1 million, the number of births in the post-baby boom echo era is expected to remain steady at about 4 million for the next 10 years. Long-range projections by the U.S. Bureau of the Census indicate a rising number of births thereafter, from 4.1 million in 2008 to 4.5 million in 2018.


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Last Updated -- September 7, 1998, (pjk)