The number of school-age children is the primary factor in determining elementary and secondary school enrollments because about 98 percent of these children are enrolled in public or private schools. Between 2000 and 2010, the number of 5- to 17-year-olds is expected to remain relatively stable at around 52 million. After 2010, the number of school-age children is expected to create a pattern of steady increases?the Millenni-Boom. Between 2010 and 2020, an increase of 6 percent is projected. About 55 million children are expected in 2020 and 60 million in 2030. By 2100, the pattern of steady increases is expected to result in a total of 94 million school-age children, reflecting an increase of 42 million from 2000. By comparison, the school-age population rose by 30 million between 1900 and 2000.

Between 2000 and 2020, the number of white, non-Hispanic students is expected to decrease, while the number of minority children is expected to increase. The number of Hispanic children is expected to increase by 60 percent, from 7.9 million to 12.7 million. The number of Asian children is expected to increase by 64 percent, from 2.1 million to 3.5 million. The number of Black, non-Hispanic children is expected to rise by 3 percent during the same period. By 2100, about 64 percent of children are expected to be from minority groups, reflecting a long-term rise from 35 percent in 2000.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Projections of the Total Resident Populationby 5-Year Age Groups, and Sex with Special Age Categories: Middle Series, 1999-2100.

[ Figure 1.--Annual number of birth, with projections: 1908 to 2028 ]

[ Figure 3.--Enrollment in public and private elementary and secondary schools: Fall 1970 to fall 2010]