In earlier studies conducted on the base-year and first follow-up NELS surveys (8th- and 10th-graders), many factors were identified as being associated with an increased probability of school failure and dropping out (Kaufman and Bradby 1992). These factors were often highly correlated with students’ demographic characteristics, especially gender, race–ethnicity, and socioeconomic status (SES). However, after controlling for these demographic factors, there were five factors related to family background or early school experiences that still substantially increased the odds of dropping out of high school.[1] These factors included being from a single parent household, having an older sibling who dropped out of high school, changing schools two or more times other than the normal progression (e.g., from elementary to middle school), having poorer than average grades, and repeating an earlier grade. Therefore, in this analysis, SES and the additional five risk factors (listed below) are used to identify 8th-graders at risk. [2]
Students were further identified according to their level of risk based on the number of risk factors they had accumulated. One risk factor was considered low risk; two risk factors constituted moderate risk; and students with three or more risk factors were considered to be at high risk of dropping out. In their preliminary analysis, Chen and Kaufman (1997) found that students who showed at least two risk factors had much higher odds of dropping out of school than students who had no risk factors. In terms of odds, compared with students with no risk factors, students who had one risk factor were 4 times more likely to drop out of school, students who had two risk factors were 13 times more likely to drop out, and students who had three or more risk factors were 30 times more likely to drop out. For this study, therefore, we focused on students at moderate or high risk.
Table 1 identifies 1992 high school graduates according to their risk status. Approximately one-third were at low risk (one risk factor), 16 percent were at moderate risk (two risk factors), and 9 percent were at high risk (three or more risk factors). The average number of risk factors among all 1992 high school graduates was about 1.7. This analysis includes only students considered at moderate or high risk. They constitute about one-quarter of the cohort of 1992 high school graduates (figure 1).
Table 1.--Percentage of 1992 high school graduates, by level of risk and the average number of risk factors
| Low risk |
Moderate risk |
High risk |
Average number of risk factors |
|
| Total* | 32.2 | 16.3 | 9.3 | 1.7 |
| Individual risk factors | ||||
| Changed schools two or more times from 1st to 8th grade (other than natural progression) |
46.8 | 29.9 | 23.3 | 1.9 |
| Lowest SES quartile | 31.1 | 34.1 | 34.7 | 2.2 |
| Average grades C's or lower from 6th to 8th grade | 31.2 | 36.3 | 32.5 | 2.2 |
| Single parent family | 32.7 | 34.1 | 33.3 | 2.2 |
| Older sibling(s) dropped out of high school | 22.6 | 35.5 | 41.9 | 2.4 |
| Held back one or more grades from 1st to 8th grade | 19.9 | 38.7 | 41.4 | 2.4 |
|
* The three risk categories account for 57.8 percent of the sample of high school graduates. The remaining 42.2 percent constitute the "no risk" group. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Confronting the Odds: Students at Risk and the Pipeline to Higher Education (NCES 98-094). Data from the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS:88/94), Data Analysis System. | ||||
Figure 1. Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates, by risk status
As shown in table 2, the most common risk factor was changing schools two or more times (27 percent) followed by being in the lowest socioeconomic quartile (18 percent) and having grades of C’s or lower from 6th to 8th grade (17 percent). Approximately 15 percent of NELS high school graduates lived in a single parent home as 8th-graders and 11 percent either had been held back a grade or had siblings who dropped out of high school. Those who were held back or who had a sibling who dropped out of school had more risk factors on average than students with other risk factors (see table 1). Table 2 also illustrates how the risk factors are interrelated. For example, among high-risk students, two thirds had changed schools two or more times. The same proportion (66 percent) were in the lowest socioeconomic quartile, and more than half of high-risk students had grades of C's or lower or had single parents.
Table 2.--Percentage of 1992 high school graduates with each risk factor, by risk status and all other risk factors
| Changed schools two or more times from 1st to 8th grade |
Lowest SES quartile |
Average grades C?s or lower from 6th to 8th grade |
Single parent family |
Older sibling(s) dropped out of high school |
Held back one or more grades from 1st to 8th grade |
|
| Total | 26.8 | 18.2 | 16.7 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| Risk status | ||||||
| Low risk | 38.7 | 17.1 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 7.8 | 6.9 |
| Moderate risk | 49.6 | 37.1 | 37.0 | 31.7 | 24.4 | 26.9 |
| High risk | 66.4 | 66.0 | 57.9 | 54.0 | 48.7 | 51.2 |
| Number of school changes from 1st to 8th grade | ||||||
| Two or more times | 100.0 | 18.8 | 20.3 | 19.2 | 14.6 | 16.6 |
| Less than two | 0.0 | 16.9 | 15.0 | 13.6 | 9.4 | 8.7 |
| SES in 1988 | ||||||
| Lowest quartile | 29.0 | 100.0 | 26.1 | 25.0 | 24.4 | 20.3 |
| Middle-to-high quartiles | 26.3 | 0.0 | 14.7 | 13.1 | 8.1 | 9.3 |
| Average grades from 6th to 8th grade | ||||||
| C?s or lower | 33.0 | 28.1 | 100.0 | 21.1 | 16.6 | 23.2 |
| A?s or B?s | 25.5 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 14.1 | 9.8 | 8.8 |
| Family composition in 1988 | ||||||
| Single parent family | 34.0 | 29.7 | 23.2 | 100.0 | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| Other than single parent | 25.5 | 16.1 | 15.6 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 10.1 |
| Older siblings who left high school | ||||||
| One or more | 35.0 | 38.8 | 24.7 | 23.8 | 100.0 | 20.8 |
| None left or no siblings | 24.6 | 14.8 | 15.2 | 13.9 | 0.0 | 9.6 |
| Ever held back 1st to 8th grade | ||||||
| Held back at least once | 40.8 | 31.3 | 33.1 | 23.1 | 20.4 | 100.0 |
| Not held back | 24.9 | 15.5 | 13.7 | 13.8 | 9.5 | 0.0 |
| NOTE: This table represents percentages of the row categories. For example, the first row under ?Risk status? reads: Among low-risk high school graduates, 38.7 percent changed schools two or more times, 17.1 percent were in the lowest socioeconomic quartile, 16.1 percent had C?s or lower, and so on. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Confronting the Odds: Students at Risk and the Pipeline to Higher Education (NCES 98-094). Data from the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS:88/94), Data Analysis System. | ||||||
As might be expected, given the inclusion of low SES as a risk factor, students at moderate or high risk were more likely to be African American or Hispanic than were students at lower risk (table 3). In fact, African Americans were about twice as likely to be at high risk (22 percent) than they were to be at low risk (10 percent).
Table 3.--Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates according to race?ethnicity, by risk status and individual risk factors
| Race?ethnicity | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian/ Pacific Islander |
Hispanic | Black, non-Hispanic |
White, non-Hispanic | American Indian/ Alaskan Native |
|
| Total | 4.6 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 74.1 | 1.0 |
| Risk status | |||||
| No risk | 3.7 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 85.4 | 0.7 |
| Low risk | 4.4 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 74.3 | 0.7 |
| Moderate risk | 3.3 | 11.9 | 16.0 | 67.6 | 1.3 |
| High risk | 3.1 | 13.7 | 21.9 | 60.2 | 1.2 |
| Individual risk factors | |||||
| SES in 1988 | |||||
| Lowest quartile | 3.2 | 21.7 | 20.1 | 53.7 | 1.3 |
| Middle to high quartiles | 4.1 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 80.8 | 0.8 |
| Family composition in 1988 | |||||
| Single parent family | 1.7 | 8.6 | 24.1 | 64.5 | 1.1 |
| Other than single parent | 4.3 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 78.1 | 0.9 |
| Number of older siblings who left high school | |||||
| One or more | 4.0 | 13.0 | 14.3 | 67.5 | 1.3 |
| None left or no siblings | 4.0 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 78.1 | 0.8 |
| Number of school changes from 1st to 8th grade | |||||
| Two or more times | 5.6 | 10.2 | 12.2 | 71.1 | 0.9 |
| Less than two | 3.2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 79.3 | 0.7 |
| Average grades from 6th to 8th grade | |||||
| C?s or lower | 3.1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 72.9 | 1.3 |
| A?s or B?s | 4.0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 76.7 | 0.8 |
| Ever held back 1st to 8th grade | |||||
| Held back at least once | 3.2 | 11.0 | 15.7 | 68.7 | 1.4 |
| Not held back | 4.0 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 78.2 | 0.8 |
|
NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Confronting the Odds: Students at Risk and the Pipeline to Higher Education (NCES 98-094). Data from the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS:88/94), Data Analysis System. | |||||
Since parents' education is a component of SES, it is also not surprising that moderate- to high-risk students also had less educated parents than their lower risk counterparts (table 4). More than half (58 percent) of high-risk students had parents who had completed no more than a high school education, compared with about one-quarter of low-risk students.
Table 4 -- Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates according to parents' highest educational attainment, by risk status and individual risk factors
| Parents' highest education | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High school or less |
Some postsecondary education |
Bachelor's degree or higher |
|||
| Total | 26.5 | 41.0 | 32.5 | ||
| Risk status | |||||
| No risk | 11.8 | 41.9 | 46.4 | ||
| Low risk | 24.9 | 43.0 | 32.1 | ||
| Moderate risk | 42.6 | 41.0 | 16.4 | ||
| High risk | 57.5 | 36.3 | 6.2 | ||
| Individual risk factors | |||||
| SES in 1988 | |||||
| Lowest quartile | 76.1 | 23.6 | 0.3 | ||
| Middle to high quartiles | 13.7 | 45.7 | 40.7 | ||
| Family composition in 1988 | |||||
| Single parent family | 37.3 | 43.3 | 19.4 | ||
| Other than single parent | 23.1 | 41.2 | 35.7 | ||
| Number of older siblings who left high school | |||||
| One or more | 42.9 | 43.6 | 13.5 | ||
| None left or no siblings | 23.7 | 40.3 | 36.0 | ||
| Number of school changes from 1st to 8th grade | |||||
| Two or more times | 23.1 | 42.8 | 34.1 | ||
| Less than two | 24.9 | 41.5 | 33.6 | ||
| Average grades from 6th to 8th grade | |||||
| C?s or lower | 37.8 | 46.0 | 16.2 | ||
| A?s or B?s | 22.7 | 40.7 | 36.6 | ||
| Ever held back 1st to 8th grade | |||||
| Held back at least once | 36.8 | 44.5 | 18.8 | ||
| Not held back | 23.0 | 41.4 | 35.6 | ||
|
NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Confronting the Odds: Students at Risk and the Pipeline to Higher Education (NCES 98-094). Data from the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS:88/94), Data Analysis System. | |||||
We analyzed three outcomes in this study: two enrollment outcomes and one indicator of postsecondary education persistence. All of the outcome measures are dichotomous, meaning that students either achieved the outcome or they did not. The two enrollment outcomes are 4-year college enrollment by 1994 versus all other behaviors (including enrollment in less-than- 4-year institutions), and enrollment in any postsecondary education (from short-term vocational programs to bachelor’s degree programs) within the same time period versus no enrollment. Table 5 shows where students enrolled relative to their risk status. It is clear from this table that students at moderate or high risk were far less likely than those at low risk or no risk to enroll in a 4-year college and far less likely to enroll in any postsecondary education. For example, just 14 percent of high-risk students enrolled in a 4-year college, and nearly half did not enroll in any postsecondary education, compared with 45 percent and 24 percent, respectively, of their low-risk counterparts. Furthermore, as the level of risk increased, the likelihood of enrolling decreased. The table also shows that students with each individual risk factor were less likely to enroll in a 4-year college and, with one exception,[3] were less likely to enroll in any postsecondary education than students without the risk factor.
Table 5--Percentage distribution of 1992 high school graduates according to the first postsecondary institution attended, by risk status and individual risk factors
| Type of institution first enrolled by 1994 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-year institution |
Public 2-year institution |
Other less- than-4-year institution |
Never enrolled |
||
| Total | 45.1 | 25.7 | 4.4 | 24.8 | |
| Risk status | |||||
| No risk | 63.5 | 21.9 | 2.4 | 12.2 | |
| Low risk | 45.1 | 26.0 | 5.2 | 23.8 | |
| Moderate risk | 27.0 | 28.4 | 5.9 | 38.7 | |
| High risk | 14.0 | 29.7 | 7.1 | 49.2 | |
| Individual risk factors | |||||
| SES in 1988 | |||||
| Lowest quartile | 21.7 | 25.2 | 6.3 | 46.8 | |
| Middle to high quartiles | 52.1 | 25.2 | 3.9 | 18.8 | |
| Family composition in 1988 | |||||
| Single parent family | 38.6 | 28.1 | 4.7 | 28.7 | |
| Other than single parent | 48.3 | 24.5 | 4.3 | 22.9 | |
| Number of older siblings who left high school | |||||
| One or more | 25.7 | 28.7 | 5.5 | 40.1 | |
| None left or no siblings | 49.8 | 24.8 | 4.2 | 21.2 | |
| Number of school changes from 1st to 8th grade | |||||
| Two or more times | 39.8 | 28.0 | 6.1 | 26.1 | |
| Less than two | 50.0 | 24.1 | 3.6 | 22.3 | |
| Average grades from 6th to 8th grade | |||||
| C?s or lower | 16.3 | 29.8 | 7.7 | 46.2 | |
| A?s or B?s | 52.8 | 24.2 | 3.7 | 19.3 | |
| Ever held back 1st to 8th grade | |||||
| Held back at least once | 20.6 | 30.0 | 5.3 | 44.2 | |
| Not held back | 51.2 | 24.4 | 4.1 | 20.3 | |
|
NOTE: Details may not sum to 100 percent because of rounding. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS:88/94), Data Analysis System. | |||||
The third outcome was an indicator of persistence in postsecondary education, a measure that characterizes students according to postsecondary education enrollment patterns known to reduce their chances of attaining a degree (Carroll 1989, Tuma and Geis 1996, Berkner et al. 1996, and Horn 1996). These patterns include delaying postsecondary education by a year or more after high school graduation, beginning postsecondary education on a part-time basis, or not attending continuously from the time of initial enrollment (i.e., stopping for four or more months). If students exhibited none of these enrollment behaviors (they enrolled full time within a year after high school graduation and attended continuously), they were considered to have a better chance at persisting to degree completion. These students were identified as exhibiting strong postsecondary education persistence.
The purpose of this study is to better understand the experiences of moderate- to high-risk youth who not only managed to graduate from high school, but who enrolled in higher education. Thus, we investigated the effect of engagement behaviors of students, their parents, and their peers on the likelihood of enrolling in postsecondary education. We also determined to what effect, if any, certain college preparation activities had on enrollment outcomes. The engagement indicators included in the models are strongly associated with the likelihood of at-risk students completing high school (Chen and Kaufman 1997).
Student Engagement
Level of high school attendance and the number of extracurricular activities students reported participating in were used as indicators of student engagement. The attendance variable is a composite based on a factor analysis of several items asked of students regarding how many times they had been late for school, skipped school, or been absent. The number of extracurricular activities was a direct item asking students to report the number of activities in which they had participated. Such activities included involvement in student government, band, service clubs, and so on.
Parent Engagement
Parent engagement indicators were based on two parent involvement measures: their educational expectations for their child (reported in 1990 when most students were in the 10th grade) and how involved they were with their child’s schooling (reported in 1992). The involvement indicator is a composite based on a factor analysis of several items asking the parent(s) to report on the frequency with which they discussed the following matters with their child: the selection of high school courses, school activities of particular interest to their child, topics their child has studied in class, plans for taking entrance exams, and applying to colleges.
Peer Engagement
Two indicators of peer engagement were included in the models (both of which were reported by the student). The first is a measure of importance that students believed their friends attributed to learning activities. The learning activities indicator was based on a factor analysis of items asked of students in 1990 regarding how important they thought their friends considered the following activities: attending classes, studying, getting good grades, finishing high school, and continuing education past high school. The second peer involvement indicator was based on how many students’ friends had plans to attend a 4-year college.
A number of variables in the NELS survey indicated the frequency with which students reported participating in college preparation programs or activities. These activities included gathering information about financial aid, participating in outreach programs such as Upward Bound, taking special courses for entrance exam preparation, and receiving help from their high school teachers or staff in preparing college and financial aid applications. A number of these variables are composites made up of several related items. For example, whether or not students got help in preparing for entrance exams is constructed from student responses to questions about taking a special course in high school or from a commercial test service, getting private tutoring, studying test booklets, or using special videotapes or test-related computer programs to prepare for exams. Whether or not students received help in the college application process was based on students’ answers to questions about assistance from their high school in filling out college or financial aid applications, writing their application essay, or getting days off to visit colleges.
The sample for this study was drawn from the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS:88/94). Students were included in the analyses if they: (1) had two or more risk factors; (2) had graduated from high school in 1992; and (3) had data on the outcome variables examined in the analysis. Application of these selection criteria resulted in samples ranging from about 1,700 to 2,900 students (depending upon which outcome was used).
Because all the outcome measures in the study are dichotomous (0=No, 1=Yes), we used logistic regressions to determine the independent effect of the engagement variables on the outcomes. The results are presented in terms of odds ratios, a measure of the relative odds of achieving a particular outcome (such as enrolling in college) for students with a particular characteristic (such as those whose parents frequently discussed school-related matters with them) compared with a reference group (such as those whose parents had infrequent discussions). It should be noted that odds ratios are not the same as the ratio of percentages. For example, if the odds ratio of a student who participates in extracurricular activities is 2.0 for enrolling in college relative to students who participated in no extracurricular activities, the odds of the former group attending college are twice as high as the latter group. But they are not necessarily twice as likely to attend. While odds ratios and ratios of percentages are often similar, they may not be the same. In this report, reference to greater or lesser likelihood refers only to a change in odds.
Two achievement measures were controlled for in all the models: (1) the cumulative score from a NELS 8th-grade battery of tests in mathematics, reading, science, and social science administered to the NELS cohort in grade 8; and (2) the highest level of high school mathematics courses taken by at-risk students as reported on their high school transcripts. The test score is a continuous variable, while the mathematics variable is categorical with eight possible levels ranging from no math to calculus. For more detailed information about variables included in the models, see the glossary in appendix A.
2 The at-risk population identified in this study differs slightly from Chen and Kaufman's study for two of the risk factors, lower than average grades and changing schools. The current study characterized students according to their risk status in the 8th grade (with the exception of having dropout siblings which was asked in the first follow-up survey). Therefore, having grades of C's or lower was determined from 6th to 8th grades and changing schools was determined from 1st through 8th grades. Chen and Kaufman's study, on the other hand, included high school grades and changing secondary schools.
3 Students who changed schools two or more times did not differ markedly from those who did not change schools no more than one time with regard to the proportion who did enroll in any postsecondary education (26 percent and 22 percent).
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[Results]
