A r c h i v e d  I n f o r m a t i o n

Executive Summary

At this time, the rate for school completion exceeds 85 percent for Asians and whites and is about 80 percent for blacks. The graduation and completion rates for Hispanics and American Indians fall significantly below those of blacks, whites, and Asians. Nevertheless, the present trend augurs continuing improvement; during the past 12 years the overall national dropout rate for 16- to 24-year-olds has fallen from 14.1 percent to 11.0 percent.

While most of the nation's attention has been directed at the identification, support, and retention of at-risk students, it remains true that the majority of dropouts are not those who seem to be most at risk. That is, although the dropout rate for blacks is 50 percent higher than for whites, and twice as high for Hispanics, 66 percent of the actual dropouts are white, while just 17 percent are black and 13 percent are Hispanic. Moreover, most dropouts are not from broken homes, not poor, and not pregnant. Consequently, if our graduation rate is to climb to 90 percent, it will have to be achieved by putting greater emphasis on retaining students whose background and behavior are not generally thought of as the defining characteristics of students who drop out.

Most studies of dropouts have aimed to establish the social and personal characteristics of the dropouts themselves, usually with the purpose of developing a profile of predictors that would permit early identification and "treatment" of students who are at risk of leaving prematurely. To date, the identification effort has met with some success, but claims for the success of dropout prevention programs are difficult to document.

Many questions about current policies and practice remain, especially in light of the direction that current education reforms are taking. Four issues in particular require attention:

• The consequences for graduation rates of the trend to develop national standards. Some say higher standards will force more students to fail. Others say graduation rates will rise because students at every level of ability will be better prepared. There is also a concern that all students cannot meet the same high standards. This concern is answered, in part, by those who believe that even if everyone cannot meet the standards, those who fall short will at least be doing better than before. These views require careful empirical examination.

• The rationalization of state graduation requirements. Because the states vary greatly in their graduation requirements, there are substantial differences in the academic meaning of diplomas from state to state. National standards will exert pressure to reconcile these differences. Until this happens, however, there will be uncertainty about the meaning of states' diplomas as well as about their actual rates of high school graduation. Since national standards are to be voluntary, efforts to establish uniformity among the states' definitions of graduation requirements and to create nationwide standards may be necessary to establish consistent and valid measures of graduation.

• The educational implications of incentives to raise the academic motivation and effort of students. Incentive programs have been suggested as a method to engage students who are otherwise uninvolved in learning. Many states and business and educational institutions have offered a variety of incentives to elementary and secondary students aimed at boosting their levels of effort and achievement. These programs range from guaranteeing postsecondary tuition to withholding privileges and grade promotions. Both have long- and short-term consequences for students. While the appeal of incentives is substantial, their present design is rudimentary and naive, and their consequences largely unknown. They deserve careful study and better design based on the large and still growing literature on human motivation.

• The development and testing of theory-based studies of school persistence and retention. The characteristics of students who are most likely to drop out and the development of dropout prevention programs intended to reduce their rate of exit dominate current research. We know well that the invidious effects of poverty, broken families, illegitimacy, and drugs can pose great obstacles to learning and graduation. But we know less about how these barriers can be overcome or how schools and society can help students resist their effects. The prospects for higher graduation rates would be increased if educators knew more about what motivates students to want to learn. Toward this end, the study of such concepts as social capital; social bonding; orientation toward the future; perceived opportunity, fairness, and caring; and "authentic" school work would contribute to a better grasp of how and why students pursue, or can be helped to pursue, their education.

Acknowledgments Introduction: Raising Graduation Rates