A r c h i v e d I n f o r m a t i o n

Defining Dropouts: A Statistical Portrait

There are three commonly used types of dropout rates:

Event dropout rates measure the proportion of students who drop out in a single year without completing high school;
Status dropout rates measure the proportion of the population that has not completed high school and is not enrolled at one point in time, regardless of when they dropped out; and
Cohort dropout rates measure what happens to a single group (or cohort) of students over a period of time.

The most recent estimate for each type of dropout rate is:

  --Event rate, grades 10-12             4.4 percent   --Status rate, ages 16-24             11.0 percent    --Cohort rate between 8th and 10th       grades, 1988 eighth-graders         6.8 percent    --Cohort rate between 10th and 12th       grades:        1980 sophomores                  10.9 percent        1990 sophomores                   6.2 percent

While the rates appear low, the actual numbers are substantial. The event rate for grades 10-12 at 4.4 percent translates to an estimated 383,000 students who dropped out of school between October 1991 and October 1992. The status dropout rate represents approximately 3.4 million dropouts in October 1992. Still, the trends in dropout rates over the past decade are encouraging. For example, status dropout rates declined from 14.1 percent in 1980 to 11.0 percent in 1992.

Who Drops Out?

Background Characteristics

Dropout rates are related to a variety of individual and family demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. In general, dropout rates are higher for minority students and for those from disadvantaged backgrounds.

Dropout rates are higher for blacks and Hispanics than for whites. When blacks and whites from similar social backgrounds are compared, however, dropout rates for blacks are not higher, and in some cases may be lower, than those for whites. Rates for American Indians and Alaskan Natives are quite high, while those for Asian students are very low (table 2).

In recent years dropout rates for males and females have been similar, although in earlier years dropout rates for males tended to be higher than those for females.

Dropout rates are higher for students from low socioeconomic backgrounds, single-parent families, and non-English family backgrounds (table 2). Students whose parents or siblings were dropouts are themselves more likely to drop out. The same is true for those who marry and have children before graduating from high school.

Location

The dropout rate is greater in cities than in suburbs and nonmetropolitan areas. Dropping out is most prevalent in the West and South.

School experiences

A student's previous success in and commitment to school are related to the likelihood of dropping out. Those with poor grades, who have repeated a grade, who are overage for their grade, or who are frequently absent are more likely to become dropouts than other students.

Composition of Dropouts

People are often surprised to discover that most of the dropouts come from groups who are not usually thought to be at risk. For example, table 2 shows that of the dropouts from the sophomore class of 1980:

66 percent were white;
87 percent had an English-language home background;
68 percent came from two-parent families;
42 percent attended suburban high schools;
80 percent had neither children nor spouses;
60 percent had C averages or better; and
71 percent had never repeated a grade.

Table 2.--Cohort dropout rate and proportion of total dropouts for 1980 sophomores by socio-demographic and geographic characteristics

------------------------------------------------------------------ Characteristic                Cohort dropout      Proportion of                                rate (percent)     total dropouts 1/ ------------------------------------------------------------------ Total                              17.3               100.0   SEX   Male                             19.3                55.5     Female                           15.2                44.5  RACE/ETHNICITY   White                            14.8                65.7     Black                            22.2                17.4     Hispanic                         27.9                13.1     Asian                             8.2                  .6     Am. Indian/Alaskan Native        35.5                 3.1  HOME LANGUAGE BACKGROUND 2/   Non-English only                 20.1                 1.9      Non-English predominant          20.8                 3.5     English predominant              12.7                 7.9     English only                     14.5                86.7  SOCIOECONOMIC STATUS 2/   Highest quartile                  6.6                11.6     Second quartile                  10.2                21.0     Third quartile                   14.3                27.9   Lowest quartile                  22.1                39.5  FAMILY STRUCTURE 2/   Both parents present             12.3                68.2   One parent present               21.6                26.7   Other                            32.6                 5.1  REGION   Northeast                        13.7                17.6   Midwest                          14.8                24.1   South                            19.5                36.8   West                             21.7                21.5  METROPOLITAN STATUS   Urban                            24.5                30.7   Suburban                         15.1                41.7   Rural                            15.6                27.6 ------------------------------------------------------------------

1/ Proportion of dropouts with nonmissing data.
2/ For these variables, 20-27 percent of dropouts have missing data.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, High School and Beyond survey, sophomore cohort (1989).

Two factors contribute to this pattern. First, the total number of students in at-risk categories is relatively small. That is, while the dropout rate is higher for blacks (22 percent) and Hispanics (28 percent) than for whites (15 percent), because whites compose over two-thirds of the total population, they contribute the greater number of dropouts. Second, research has found that most at-risk students do not drop out. For example, despite their higher dropout rate, most blacks (78 percent) and Hispanics (72 percent) graduate from high school.

Reasons for Dropping Out

Dropping out of school is a complicated and multifaceted phenomenon. Researchers find that dropping out is a process, not an event. It is relatively rare for students to make a snap judgment to leave school. The reasons students commonly offer for leaving school--for example, low grades, inability to get along, working, and pregnancy--may not be the true causes but rationalizations or simplifications of more complex circumstances.

Returning to School

Dropping out of high school is not an irrevocable action. The problem of dropouts in this country would be even greater if a substantial share of them did not later complete high school, often within a short period of time after dropping out. Nearly half (46 percent) of the dropouts from the sophomore class of 1980 had completed high school by 1986, that is, within 4 years of their expected graduation date. Approximately two-thirds of dropouts who later complete high school do so by obtaining some sort of equivalency credential. In 1992, about 465,000 General Education Development (GED) credentials were awarded in the United States, including the territories.

The characteristics of dropouts who later earn a diploma or an equivalency certificate tend to resemble those of students who never dropped out. The same characteristics that differentiate dropouts from other students also distinguish dropouts who return and complete their education from dropouts who do not return to school.

The earlier the grade from which a student drops out of high school, the less likely it is that the student will later complete high school. Furthermore, the earlier the grade at the time of leaving school, the more likely it is that a dropout who does later complete his or her education will do so by means of an equivalency certificate.

As a group, Asian dropouts are most likely to return and complete high school, while American Indian and Hispanic dropouts are least likely to return and finish. Black and white dropouts do not differ in their completion rates in the first few years after dropping out of high school. Dropouts from high socioeconomic backgrounds or those with high grades are more likely to return than those from low socioeconomic status families or with poor grades.

Introduction: Raising Graduation Rates What Do We Know?