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In the 1970s and early 1980s, as much as one-third of an entering cohort of enlistees left military service before the end of their contracted enlistment term (Buddin 1984, Laurence 1987). These early departures constituted a serious problem for the military. Most enlisted positions require occupational and technical training, and the military services themselves shoulder the cost. Attrition is costly to both the military and the taxpayer--estimated at $18,400 per premature separation in 1987 dollars (Laurence 1987).
Often, too, attrition is a reflection of behavior detrimental to the military's functioning. While some dismissals are the result of medical disabilities and other nonpejorative causes, as many as 80 percent of enlisted dismissals occur for adverse reasons, including ineptitude, behavior disorders, alcoholism, motivational problems, acquired civil court convictions, drug use, financial irresponsibility, and other misconduct (Laurence 1993, Laurence, Ramsberger, and Arabian 1996).
For these and other reasons, the military seeks to reduce attrition as much as possible. One means of doing so is to recruit individuals who, based on personal characteristics, have a relative high probability of completing their first term of service.
Studies conducted by the military since 1959 have examined the impact of demographics, background experiences, high school completion status, and cognitive ability on first-term attrition. These studies have shown that of the measures available to the military, the high school completion status of recruits is the single best predictor of attrition, even after controlling for age, cognitive aptitude, and other personal characteristics (e.g., Buddin 1984; U.S. Department of Defense 1974; Elster and Flyer 1981; Flyer 1959; Laurence 1984, 1987; Sinaiko 1977; Toomepuu 1981). Historically, failure to complete the first term of service has been approximately twice as likely among nongraduates as among high school graduates (Elster and Flyer, 1981).
Initially, GED recipients were classified along with regular high school graduates in the preferred group of applicants for enlistment. In the late 1970s, however, all four services changed their enlistment classification of GED credential holders, consistent with accumulating research evidence showing that the attrition rates of GEDs were close to those of high school dropouts (Means and Laurence 1984). The military services became reluctant to enlist GED recipients. GEDs, other high school equivalency certificate holders, and non-high school graduates were, and are, required to attain higher scores on the AFQT than high school diploma graduates (Laurence 1993). The 1981 Defense Authorization Act even placed a ceiling on the annual proportion of recruits that could be enlisted without regular high school diplomas (Eitelberg et al. 1984). Consequently, the services have enlisted fewer GED holders and more high school graduates as a proportion of all recruits (Means and Laurence 1984).
In the early 1980s, some members of the education community, as well as the general public, voiced concern over the military's differential aptitude standards for holders of different educational credentials. For example, the American Council on Education raised questions about the military's treatment of people with nontraditional credentials. In response, the Department of Defense contracted for a comprehensive study of the background factors, self-reported experiences, and military performance records of enlistees with different statuses of high school completion (regular diploma, GED, no credential). The study confirmed earlier findings that of all the variables examined--age, race, AFQT score, sex, marital status, and others--completion of high school was the single best predictor of first-term completion. High school completion status remains an efficient and effective screening tool for the military services. Although the military's screening policies with regard to educational credentials remain controversial, the robustness of their relationship to attrition has allowed the changes to endure over time.
Table 18 pulls together data on attrition rates of GED recipients, high school graduates, and high school dropouts in various years between 1977 and 1989.
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For each of the years listed between 1977 and 1983, the 36-month attrition rates for GED holders were just about twice those of regular high school diploma graduates and close to those of high school dropouts. For example, in 1983, attrition rates were lowest for regular high school graduates (22 percent) and far higher for GED holders and those without a high school credential (45 and 52 percent, respectively).[62] These patterns are similar across military services and are similar to those in earlier and later studies (Elster and Flyer 1981; Means and Laurence 1984; Laurence 1993).
Why is high school completion status such a powerful predictor of attrition? Laurence (1984) observes that the social attributes and experiences that enable a student to complete high school may be the underlying trait associated with an individual's probability of fulfilling the first term of service. That is, perseverance, maturity, successful participation in group learning situations, team spirit, tolerance of and adaptability to rules and regulations, determination, self-control, and other similar attributes may be the true predictors of persistence in the military, rather than whatever educational attainment is represented by the diploma (Laurence 1984, 1993).
Although earning a GED may signal that an individual is motivated and has the basic cognitive skills of a high school graduate, it may not signal that the individual has developed or internalized the skills needed to be successful in a highly structured environment such as the military. Variability in the attrition rates among enlistees with other types of high school completion credentials lends some support to this view. Table 19 lists the 24-month attrition rates of individuals who enlisted without high school diplomas by branch of military service and high school completion status.
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Enlistees who persisted through two or more years of college, even though they had not earned a high school diploma, had the lowest attrition rate, 20.4 percent. High school graduates had the next lowest, 22.5 percent. In the mid-range were holders of a variety of different certificates requiring some sustained effort to attain. At the low end of the range, GED recipients had a 40.9 percent attrition rate, and other dropouts, a rate of 42.9 percent.
Given the differences in these attrition rates, one could argue that attrition is associated with both the degree of formal structure in the enlistee's education and the length of time it takes to complete that education. The types of skills and attitudes required to complete a regular high school diploma or two full years of college may be similar to the skills and attitudes necessary to succeed in the military. By earning a regular high school diploma, or another credential requiring the same degree of discipline and persistence, an individual can demonstrate the ability to persevere in a formalized and structured environment--a characteristic likely to be desirable in both military and civilian organizations. Holders of an occupational program certificate or high school certificate of attendance or completion may be demonstrating that they have internalized some of these characteristics, although not to the extent that regular high school graduates have. Holders of other types of credentials may have internalized fewer of the social skills necessary to succeed in the military.
By raising the required AFQT score for GEDs seeking to enlist, the military can restrict the number of GEDs admitted and thus reduce overall attrition. However, it is doubtful that increased AFQT scores ensure better retention rates for those GEDs who are accepted by the military. Laurence (1984, 1993) notes that tested aptitude, as measured by AFQT, is inversely, if weakly, related to retention.[63] While aptitude scores do not predict attrition, education differentials can help in selecting among the higher risk, and thus less preferred, candidates. Aptitude test scores are used primarily to gauge ability to absorb military training and perform the necessary job skills, while education level is used mostly as an index of social adjustment (Flyer and Elster 1981; Laurence 1987; Toomepuu 1981). After doing extensive research on attrition, in 1987 the military services recategorized education credentials into three tiers (Laurence 1993; Laurence, Ramsberger, and Arabian 1996). Figure 3 shows the classification system.
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For the first time, all the services began categorizing high school credentials in the same way, although each independently determined its own enlistment standards and the enlistment priority of each tier. This system remains largely intact today, with the exception of adult education diplomas, which were moved into the first tier in 1988 after intense lobbying by the adult education community and its friends in Congress (Laurence 1993).
Data on the 24-month attrition rate of 1988-93 recruits presented in table 19 show that those without a traditional diploma who completed just one semester of college had attrition rates similar to those of Tier 2, rather than Tier 1, recruits. Although this category seems to be out of synch with others in the classification scheme, the various credentials and experiences currently remain in the tiers to which they were assigned in the late 1980s.
Because of continued political debate over the fairness of the three-tier credential system, the services began considering adaptability screening and an "Assessment of Background and Life Experiences" (ABLE) program to supplement or replace the current classification based on education credentials (Trent and Laurence 1993). These programs would use inventories of biographical and temperament information for selecting men and women for military service. Interest in implementing these types of screening mechanisms has abated, however, because of concerns that applicants could either fake or be coached into desirable responses. For the time being, in spite of its unpopularity among advocates of alternative education credentials, the three-tier system remains a fairly reliable and cost-effective means of screening new recruits.
Although the classification system places GED recipients in the second tier, many GEDs do enter the military. The 7-8 percent of GED recipients who enlist each year translates into 35,000-40,000 individuals.
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[Conclusion]