A r c h i v e d  I n f o r m a t i o n

Conclusion

The message that a college education is the open door in to long-term economic success has been heard in all segments of the population around the country. This report seeks to alert the American public to the coming reality that many more people will be seeking a college education in the near future and that the vast majority of these students will attend full-time. At the same time, many colleges and universities are becoming more selective in their admissions process. The result will be increased competition for high school seniors as they seek to go to the college of their choice.

Preparation for college has to begin earlier, and one of the most promising developments in American education today is the growing dialogue and partnership between K?12 educators and our nation's system of higher education for creating new pathways to college. Despite the concerns of many families, a college education is affordable and a great deal of financial assistance is available. The immediate task of leaders at all levels of American education is to do much better at helping parents and students understand what they must do, both academically and financially, in order to take full advantage of the many accessible opportunities to gain a college education.

(in millions)

(in millions)

Total college enrollment has been increasing in recent years, reaching a record 14.9 million in fall 1999. Further increases are expected at all levels of higher education. Undergraduate enrollment is expected to rise from 12.8 million to 14.3 million between 1999 and 2009, an increase of 11 percent. Graduate enrollment is expected to rise by about 2 percent to 1.8 million in 2009, and first-professional enrollment is expected to rise about 4 percent to about .3 million.

Table 1. Total enrollment in institutions of higher education, by level of student, gender, and attendance status: Fall 1969 to fall 2009
Year	Enrollment					Percent full-time			Percent female
	Total	Under-	Graduate	First-		Under-	Graduate	First-	Under-		Graduate	First-
		graduate		professional		graduate		professional	graduate			professional
1969	8,004	6,884	955	165		72.5	38.0	86.9	41.8		38.3	9.6
1970	8,580	7,376	1,031	173		71.6	36.8	90.8	42.3		38.8	8.5
1971	8,948	7,743	1,012	193		71.2	38.3	91.5	42.9		38.9	9.7
1972	9,214	7,941	1,066	207		69.1	37.0	92.0	44.2		41.2	11.2
1973	9,603	8,261	1,123	219		67.5	36.5	92.1	45.1		42.5	14.9
1974	10,223	8,798	1,190	235		65.1	35.9	91.9	45.8		44.2	17.6
1975	11,184	9,679	1,263	242		63.7	35.9	90.8	45.7		44.6	20.7
1976	11,006	9,429	1,333	244		64.0	34.7	90.1	48.0		46.4	22.3
1977	11,287	9,717	1,319	251		62.7	35.8	90.0	49.6		46.8	23.8
1978	11,260	9,691	1,312	257		61.6	35.7	90.5	50.8		48.0	25.2
1979	11,570	9,998	1,309	263		60.8	36.4	90.7	51.8		48.9	26.6
1980	12,095	10,475	1,343	278		60.7	36.1	90.5	52.3		49.9	28.2
1981	12,372	10,755	1,343	275		60.0	36.0	90.4	52.5		49.8	29.7
1982	12,426	10,825	1,322	278		59.9	36.7	90.5	52.2		49.4	31.3
1983	12,465	10,846	1,340	279		60.1	37.1	89.6	52.4		49.5	32.5
1984	12,242	10,618	1,345	279		59.8	37.2	89.6	52.8		50.1	33.6
1985	12,247	10,597	1,376	274		59.6	37.0	89.9	53.2		50.8	34.4
1986	12,504	10,798	1,435	270		58.8	36.4	90.8	53.5		51.7	35.7
1987	12,767	11,046	1,452	268		58.5	36.3	90.1	54.1		52.2	36.6
1988	13,055	11,317	1,472	267		58.7	37.6	90.3	54.6		52.6	37.5
1989	13,539	11,743	1,522	274		58.3	37.6	90.3	54.8		53.3	38.5
1990	13,819	11,959	1,586	273		58.3	37.8	89.9	55.0		53.5	39.0
1991	14,359	12,439	1,639	281		58.1	39.2	89.8	55.2		53.6	39.4
1992	14,487	12,538	1,669	281		57.8	39.9	89.8	55.5		53.7	40.0
1993	14,305	12,324	1,688	292		58.3	40.8	88.8	55.5		54.3	40.9
1994	14,279	12,263	1,721	295		58.5	41.0	89.3	55.8		54.9	41.0
1995	14,261	12,232	1,731	298		58.4	41.4	89.5	55.8		55.7	41.6
1996	14,300	12,259	1,743	298		58.8	42.2	89.6	55.9		56.4	42.1
1997	14,345	12,298	1,751	297		59.4	42.9	89.7	56.0		56.8	43.2
	Projected
1998	14,608	12,577	1,750		280	58.2	38.2	88.2		57.1	57.4	43.2
1999	14,881	12,842	1,760		279	58.7	37.8	88.2		57.4	57.8	43.7
2000	15,072	13,037	1,758		277	59.0	37.6	88.1		57.5	58.1	44.0
2001	15,158	13,137	1,747		275	59.3	37.6	87.6		57.5	58.2	44.0
2002	15,168	13,154	1,740		274	59.4	37.6	88.0		57.4	58.2	44.2
2003	15,262	13,247	1,740		275	59.5	37.7	88.0		57.4	58.3	44.4
2004	15,400	13,374	1,749		277	59.7	38.0	88.1		57.4	58.3	44.4
2005	15,556	13,515	1,760		281	59.9	38.2	87.9		57.5	58.5	44.5
2006	15,739	13,686	1,770		283	60.2	38.4	88.3		57.6	58.5	44.9
2007	15,929	13,862	1,780		286	60.5	38.7	88.8		57.7	58.5	45.1
2008	16,144	14,067	1,787		289	60.8	39.0	88.6		57.7	58.6	45.0
2009	16,336	14,253	1,792		291	61.1	39.2	88.7		57.7	58.5	45.0

(in millions)

Total enrollment in California's public colleges and universities was 2.0 million in 1998. College enrollment in California is expected to increase an additional .7 million students by 2010, for a total of 2.7 million, a 36 percent rise from 1998. It is expected that population growth will account for most (72 percent) of the increase in student enrollment.

The majority of students will be enrolled in California's community colleges, 1.5 million in 1999 and 2.0 million in 2010. The increase at the community colleges accounts for approximately 74 percent of the new student enrollment. California State University (CSU) will experience a 37 percent increase and the University of California (UC) will see a 32 percent increase. Warren Fox, Executive Director of the California Postsecondary Education Commission (CPEC), stated, "This will be the largest number of students, anywhere, at any time, in any state, seeking public college enrollment."

(in millions)

The annual number of graduates is expected to increase for the next 10 years because of rising enrollments in high schools. The number of public high school graduates grew from 2.2 million in 1994 to 2.4 million in 1998, an increase of 10 percent. The number of graduates is expected to reach 2.9 million by the year 2009, an increase of another 19 percent compared to 1998.

The number of graduates from private schools has increased at a rate similar to public schools. In 1998, about 284,000 students graduated from private schools, and this figure is expected to reach about 338,000 graduates in 2009.

The number of students receiving General Educational Development (GED) credentials was 496,000 in 1998, about the same as in 1994. However, the proportion of GED test takers who were age 19 or under rose from 34 percent in 1994 to 43 percent in 1998.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey, unpublished data.

About 37 percent of all 18- to 24-year-olds were enrolled in a 2- or 4-year college or university in 1998. Females were more likely to be enrolled in college than males. The college enrollment rate for white 18- to 24-year-olds was higher than the rate for black or Hispanic 18- to 24-year-olds. About 41 percent of white 18- to 24-year-olds were enrolled in college, compared to 30 percent for black persons and 20 percent for Hispanic persons.

Young people at the traditional ages for college enrollment, 18 to 24 years old, remained more likely to be enrolled in college than older persons. However, large numbers of older persons also attended college. About 12 percent of 25- to 29-year-olds, 6 percent of 30- to 34-year-olds, and 4 percent of 35- to 39-year-olds attended college in 1998. Altogether, about two-fifths of all college students were over age 24.

As an alternative or addition to further education, many young people enter the labor force after high school. The challenges in entering the job market for high school dropouts, and youth in general, are highlighted by their labor force and unemployment experiences. About 61 percent of the 1997-98 high school dropouts were in the labor force (employed or looking for work) in 1998, and about 28 percent of them were unemployed. Of the 1998 high school graduates who were not in college, 80 percent were in the labor force, and 18 percent of those in the labor force were unemployed.

High school graduates enrolled in college were employed at about the same rates as high school dropouts who were not attending school. About 50 percent of the 1998 high school graduates attending college also were in the labor force. Their unemployment rate was 11 percent.

(in millions)

More people are completing college. The number of associate degrees conferred this year is expected to be about .6 million, representing an increase of 25 percent compared to 1989-90. About 1.2 million degrees are expected to be awarded at the bachelor's level in 1999-2000, up 11 percent from 1989-90. The number of degrees conferred at the postbaccalaureate level has also increased. The number of master's degrees is expected to be about 385,000 in 1999-2000, an increase of 19 percent since 1989-90. The number of doctor's degrees is estimated at 44,000 for 1999-2000, a rise of 14 percent compared to 10 years earlier. About 74,000 degrees are expected at the first-professional level for the same year in fields as dentistry, law, and medicine, reflecting an increase of about 5 percent compared to 1989-90.

Many students who embark on college programs do not receive degrees. About half (53 percent) of the students who enrolled in a 4-year college in 1989-90 had completed their degree by spring 1994. About 7 percent of the students had completed an associate degree or other certificate below the bachelor's degree, 15 percent of the students were still enrolled in a bachelor's degree program, and 24 percent had left college.

In 1996, a greater proportion of 17-year-olds had completed or was taking general science, biology, chemistry, and physics courses compared to students in 1986. The percentage of students taking chemistry rose from 40 percent of students in 1986 to 56 percent in 1996, a rise of 16 percentage points. Almost all students took biology (94 percent), while a much smaller percentage took physics (14 percent).

Over the ten-year span, the percentage of both males and females taking science courses increased. However, the proportion of females taking the four science courses rose at a more rapid rate than the proportion of males. The percentage of females taking chemistry increased by 19 percentage points (39 to 58 percent), while the percentage of males showed an 11 point increase (42 to 53 percent).

The proportion of students taking science courses rose for minority groups between 1986 and 1996. The increase was most notable for students taking chemistry, with both Hispanic and black students showing sizeable increases. The proportion of Hispanic students taking chemistry rose 22 percentage points (24 to 46 percent of students) and the proportion of black students rose 20 percentage points (29 to 49 percent). Also, a greater percentage of Hispanic and black students took physics in 1996 compared to white students.

The percentage of 17-year-olds who completed higher-level math courses?algebra II and precalculus or calculus?rose from 1978 to 1996. In 1996, 50 percent of all students completed algebra II, an increase of 13 percentage points from 1978. In 1996, 13 percent of students completed precalculus or calculus, nearly double the percentage in 1978. In 1996, more students completed their high school math program at the more advanced levels of geometry, algebra II, precalculus or calculus, than those who completed work only through the prealgebra/general or algebra I levels.

The proportion of both males and females taking higher-level math courses increased over the 18-year span. The percentage of females completing algebra II increased by 16 points (37 to 53 percent of students), and the percentage of males completing algebra II increased by 9 points (38 to 47 percent).

The proportion of minority students taking higher-level math courses also rose from 1978 to 1996. The percentage of Hispanic students completing algebra II increased by 18 points, from 23 to 41 percent. The percentage of black students completing algebra II rose 17 points, from 28 to 45 percent.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Getting Ready for College Early, 19 99; and Digest of Education Statistics, 1998.

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Getting a Higher Education Pays Off

Conclusion [Part 2]