A r c h i v e d  I n f o r m a t i o n

Conclusion

Several of the points made by critics of the college movement find qualified support in empirical research. First, there is a widespread belief that high school graduates should go to a 4-year college. However, the belief is not universal, as the critics contend, and the general expectation of "college for all" includes 2-year colleges as well as 4-year schools. Second, the ability of college students, as measured by standardized tests, did decline in the 1970s, but it returned to its previous levels in the 1980s. Third, there has been a moderate decline in 4-year college completion rates over specific time periods, but it is explained at least in part by the fact that students are taking longer to graduate. Nevertheless, the critics are right in observing that many students leave 4-year colleges without graduating. We estimate that about half of the entrants each year-over 600,000 students-eventually leave without graduating.

Critics of the college movement are also right about another major point: The labor market and other outcomes of 4-year college students who leave without graduating are unimpressive. Their wages and earnings are about the same as those of similar 2-year college students with the same amount of education. Their cognitive gains from college are no greater than those of their 2-year-college counterparts. They also are more likely to have debt from student loans than are 2-year-college attenders. However, according to one study, vocational noncompleters from 4-year colleges are an exception to the rule, receiving substantial earnings benefits.

Unlike the noncompleters, 4-year college graduates are doing well in the labor market. Their real earnings have held fairly steady since 1975, though they are a little below their 1973 peak. Except for the atypical 1970s, their wage advantage over high school graduates has been growing for 4 or 5 decades, and possibly longer. The main force behind this growing advantage is skill-biased technological change, which raises the skill requirements of jobs and often replaces less skilled workers with more skilled individuals. In addition to a growing wage premium, the rate of return on investment in college is high.

The apparent shift of some college graduates into "non-college" jobs since the 1970s can be explained in part by the increasing demand for skills in these jobs. As upskilling occurs through the proliferation of technology, many "non-college" jobs become "college-level" jobs. Whether upskilling can account for all of the occupational shift, though, is still unclear.

The findings of this synthesis have implications for prospective or actual college students. It seems obvious that high school graduates enrolling in 4-year colleges should do everything in their power to complete their bachelor's degrees. The earnings of college dropouts are limited. Not only is the 4 years of education important, but the degree itself may increase earnings, especially for males.

Given the limited gains of college noncompleters in the labor market, one is tempted to argue that high school graduates with relatively low grades and test scores, whose chances of attaining a bachelor's degree are also relatively low, would be better off enrolling in community colleges. However, the consistent finding that community college entrants who aspire to bachelor's degrees are less likely to attain them than 4-year-college entrants of similar ability counsels caution. By opting to enter a community college rather than a 4-year college, a low-achieving high school graduate might be reducing his or her chances of ever getting a bachelor's degree.

The proportion of low-achieving 4-year college entrants who graduate is not trivial. According to Astin's (1996) data, about a fifth of 4-year entrants with high school grade averages of C or less and SAT total scores of 700 or less eventually got BAs. About one fourth of those who earned C+ high school averages and had scores of 700?849 graduated. On the other hand, viewed from the perspective of a high school graduate with these grades and test scores, the chances of eventually attaining a BA degree are not very good-1 out of 4 or 1 out of 5. Losing the advantage of starting at a 4-year school, which Whitaker and Pascarella (1994) estimated at 15 percent, would only reduce their chances to around 1 out of 5 or 1 out of 6.

High school graduates of modest ability or uncertain motivation who are thinking of enrolling in a 4-year college, especially in a liberal arts major, would be well advised to consider enrolling in a community college or an occupational training program such as those offered by the military. A lower-achieving graduate who chose one of these options would slightly reduce his or her (already low) chances of attaining a bachelor's degree but would probably realize the same cognitive development gains and the same or greater earnings at less cost and with less debt.

Further, high school guidance counselors should give more realistic advice to high school seniors with below-average records or those unlikely to persist in college. Rather than advocating "college for all," as many apparently do, they should clearly distinguish among the different postsecondary options and recommend educational paths and goals consistent with student abilities and motivation. For seniors who unrealistically aspire to a bachelor's degree, they should point out that two-year degrees can yield significant earnings benefits. If the students persevere and complete their subbaccalaureate programs, additional postsecondary education may be a viable next step.

The findings in this synthesis also have implications for education policy. In discussing these implications, however, we need to go beyond the present research. The following should be regarded as a reflection on alternative approaches to addressing problems raised by the synthesis.

Clearly, it is important to raise the skill levels of the nation's workforce more rapidly. One way to do so would be to produce more college graduates. It is possible that labor market incentives such as college premiums will yield enough graduates to bring supply and demand into balance. However, even though college enrollments respond to changing premiums, demand has generally outstripped supply for decades. Some higher education advocates believe that the best way to produce more college graduates would be to increase public subsidies to colleges. Many states have reduced their share of support for the cost of college, and the institutions would of course like to see the share increased. This approach has the advantage of being both straightforward and effective. But it has the disadvantage of not being very efficient. As we have pointed out, about half of the new entrants to college leave without completing. Further, the fact that noncompleters earn no more than similar 2-year college noncompleters who cost less to educate raises serious questions about the cost-effectiveness of this approach.

Increasing the supply of college graduates is not the only way to raise the skill levels of the workforce. Many critics of the college movement advocate putting more resources into the expansion and improvement of subbaccalaureate education, especially technical education. While we believe that enrollment n 2-year colleges should be seriously considered by lower-achieving high school graduates thinking of attending 4-year colleges, it does not follow that public subsidies to community and technical colleges should be increased. Such increases might also support the enrollment of many other students with lower achievement levels for short periods of time. Short periods of education (less than a year) in these colleges yield little in the way of earnings benefits. Further, though it costs less to educate students in 2-year colleges than in 4-year schools, the attrition rate is much higher. Further research on the costs and benefits of public investment in subbaccalaureate education as compared to 4-year education is warranted. Such research should take into account not only the labor-market performance of graduates, but also the performance of noncompleters and the noncompletion rates.

Other researchers, such as Murnane and Levy (1996), believe that elementary/secondary education should be the primary focus of efforts to improve skill levels. The authors observe that "the apparent importance of college depends as much on what K?12 schools are not doing as on what is learned in college." While the skills required by the economy have changed radically in the last 20 years, the skills taught in elementary and secondary schools have changed very little. The authors recommend focusing on work-relevant "new basic skills" i.e., teaching the "hard skills" of reading, math, and problem-solving; the "soft skills" of oral and written communication and the ability to work in groups; and personal computer skills, at much higher levels than many high school graduates currently attain.

The emphasis on improving skills through elementary/secondary education has obvious advantages. Because this approach would work through publicly funded universal education, it would be available to all students, including lower-achieving and disadvantaged students. It would reduce wage inequality by better preparing high school graduates for the workplace, making them more productive and raising their pay. It would also better prepare many high school graduates for postsecondary education. This would reduce noncompletion rates in 2-year and 4-year colleges (holding enrollment rates constant), thus making postsecondary education more efficient. This approach would also produce more graduates from both types of college, helping supply catch up with demand. Though college graduate earnings would be reduced for a given level of demand, the additional degree holders would earn more than they otherwise would have, and earnings inequality would be further reduced.

The advantages of greatly improving skills through elementary/secondary education have been recognized at least since the report of the Excellence Commission in 1983. The standards-based school reform movement emanating from the report has made some gains, but progress has been slow and difficult. Currently, attention is shifting to improving teacher quality. The improvement of elementary and secondary schooling remains and should remain a primary goal of education policy. The key question is, what are the most effective and cost-effective ways of achieving this goal?

Expanding continuing occupational education and training is yet another way to improve workforce skills. This approach is proving valuable for updating skills and preparing adult workers for job and career changes. However, success in such education and training efforts depends on underlying cognitive skills and personal qualities such as persistence. The many workers who have such skills and qualities can benefit substantially from this approach. However, it is proving very difficult to engender these skills and attributes in adults who do not have them. In this case, improved elementary/ secondary education again seems to be the key.

Since at least the turn of the century, the nation's chief response to the economy's increasing demand for skills has been to increase the average years of education in the labor force. This process is still going on, but we wonder how long it can continue. Will most workers a century from now have a Ph.D.-level education? Over time, additional years of education will become more and more expensive, as additional years of work experience are foregone. One alternative is to pack more learning and skill development into earlier years of education. There have already been some steps in this direction. For example, the College Board's popular Advanced Placement (AP) tests and the related AP courses enable students to gain college credits while still in high school. Some students who acquire many AP credits can graduate from college in 3 years rather than 4, saving both private and public postsecondary costs. Substantially raising the skill level of high school graduates in general would have a similar effect, enabling many to get and hold jobs that now require some college. Whether increasing learning in the elementary/ secondary years-and in early childhood?will replace increasing years of education as society's principal response to the demands of technological change?or whether other strategies will emerge?remains to be seen.

[Outcomes for College Graduates]

[Bibliography]