A few decades ago, a high school diploma was regarded as adequate for most Americans and postsecondary education was reserved for a social and economic elite. Those days are over. In today's economy, lifetime learning is necessary, a constant retooling of skills and knowledge. As Federal Reserve Board Chairman Alan Greenspan said in a speech before the American Council on Education, "The heyday when a high school or college education would serve a graduate for a lifetime is gone."
Today, we are moving toward a universal system?and the public is embracing the trend. A recent survey succinctly stated this change: "Today, you don't even question whether you are going to college." From solely an economic standpoint, it is easy to see why. On average, a college graduate earns $600,000 more over a lifetime than a high school graduate.11
In 1972, 49 percent of high school graduates enrolled in a postsecondary institution within one year after graduating.12 Today, more than 66 percent of students enter college the fall after they graduate.13 In 1960, about 4 million students were enrolled in postsecondary institutions; today, approximately 15 million Americans are enrolled.14 This growth will continue, and perhaps even accelerate, over the next 10 years. The need for postsecondary education is becoming universally recognized as a part of the American psyche. The school age population is growing. For example, California expects to see its postsecondary enrollment grow by 714,000 students-35 percent-over the next decade.15 What do the numbers mean? How does the system respond to such growth-beyond just adding bricks and mortar?
California will respond, in part, by paying the tuition of low-income students with good grades. The measure, signed into law by Governor Gray Davis in September 2000, could cost the state more than $1 billion annually.
Other related forces also are having a powerful impact on postsecondary education today. Electronic distance education, new classroom applications, and other information technologies are transforming postsecondary institutions. The number of distance courses offered by U.S. postsecondary institutions and the number of enrollments nearly doubled between 1994-95 and 1997-98.16 How will federal education policy respond to the challenges of ensuring quality, delivering financial aid, and building technological capacity in this changed environment?
The new technology is raising an age-old question: What is the best way to measure outcomes? Now it is done by the seat of the pants, literally, not figuratively. Some Education Department rules are based on attendance-seat time-not mastery of a subject. The "digerati" charge that the academics don't get it, that the old rule is measuring the wrong end of the student. Yet if postsecondary institutions measure outcomes only, do they just become sophisticated testing services? What's the value of the campus experience, and should it be measured? The case for social and civic education gained from personal interaction with faculty and friends is strong. But how strong in the digital age? Is it valuable even if it can't be accurately measured? As distance learning grows, these measurement questions will have to be addressed.
Globalization is also imposing new demands on postsecondary institutions. More than ever before, America's students must be prepared to work in an international environment. Yet only a small number of U.S. students study abroad17, and we do not have in place adequate international studies curricula for students who cannot go overseas. Language study continues to languish. At the same time, we are facing increased competition from other countries in our efforts to attract foreign students to study at our postsecondary institutions.
Because of all these changes, the future will be very different.
