A r c h i v e d  I n f o r m a t i o n

       FOR RELEASE                                          Contact: David Thomas     August 21, 1996                                               (202) 401-1576

School Enrollments to Hit All-Time Record

According to a special back to school report, prepared by the Education Department's National Center for Education Statistics, this year's enrollments will eclipse the previous mark set in 1971 of 51.3 million students in public and private elementary and secondary schools. Increases are expected to continue over the next decade, reaching 54.6 million in the year 2006.

Riley said that nationwide about 190,000 additional teachers and some 6,000 more schools will be needed over the next 10 years to accommodate what demographers call "the baby boom echo" -- the children of the so-called baby boom generation who are now in school.

"Obviously, these increases are placing a serious demand on schools and the communities that invest in them," Riley said. "California, for example, can expect to add some half a million students to its high schools over the next decade, a 33 percent increase in enrollment in a state that already has one of the highest average class sizes in the country."

In addition to California, other states expected to experience an overall jump of more than 10 percent in enrollments over the next decade are Alabama, Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Maryland, Oregon and Washington. In all, 33 states will have rising enrollments, mostly in the Far West and Southeast. Seventeen states and the District of Columbia can expect a decrease.

"Unlike the 1960s when the end of the enrollment boom was soon in sight, this current increase is a long, slow, rising wave," Riley said, "and we see no immediate fall off. We are only at the midpoint and we have ten more years of growth ahead.

"Portable classrooms or double sessions are not realistic answers to a long term, persistent growth in the number of students. In some parts of the country school officials are now facing a serious challenge -- how to serve significantly more students, while investing in new technologies and continuing the drive toward higher academic standards and a well prepared teaching staff."

As an example, Riley cited the Clark County School District in Nevada, where enrollments have nearly doubled over the past ten years. Superintendent Brian Cram reports that the county will open 15 new schools in the next two years to accommodate the new students.

The report cites four factors that account for today's rising enrollments: a delay in marriage and child bearing among baby boomers, a higher birth rate among minorities, immigration, and students staying in school longer.

Riley noted that high school enrollment will increase by 15 percent nationwide over the next decade and the number of students attending America's colleges will grow by some 2 million -- reaching 16.4 million by the year 2006.

"As with every challenge, new opportunities will be created," Riley said. "If we rise to the occasion, by providing all students with the skills and knowledge demanded by the jobs of the next century, we can expect rising incomes and solid economic growth. After all, today's students will become the workers that support retirees in the future."

According to the report, the ratio of workers to retirees will continue to drop, from about 5 to 1 in 1970 before the influx of new workers stabilizes the ratio around 2030 at about 2.6 to 1.

"Now is the time to invest in America's future," Riley said. "We need a record-breaking number of parents and other caring adults to invest the time, energy and resources it will take to raise our children right. It's time for America to go back to school and get involved."

The special report on the baby boom echo is available on the department's homepage at http://nces.ed.gov/pubs98/98039.pdf [as of Wednesday morning].

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