A r c h i v e d I n f o r m a t i o n

   FOR RELEASE                                Contact:  David Thomas    August 31, 1995                                    (202) 401-1579

1995 Back to School Forecast: Enrollments, Graduations and Degrees up

More and more Americans are engaged in more and more education, according to the annual back-to-school forecast issued today by U.S. Secretary of Education Richard W. Riley.

"The Information Age must also be the Education Age," Riley said. "The two go hand-in-hand and, increasingly, we see more students taking harder courses and staying in school longer. We also see parents going back to school, gaining new skills and increasing their potential for higher wages and more opportunities. If ever there was a time to focus on education, this is it."

"Ultimately, knowledge is a national security issue -- the enemy is ignorance and schools are our first line of defense. This fall, I hope every American will visit a school, learn what's going on and volunteer to help."

Data projections contained in the annual back-to-school forecast are prepared by the Education Department's National Center for Education Statistics.

K-12 ENROLLMENTS INCREASE

The nation's preschool and kindergarten enrollment will rise by an estimated 250,000 this fall, up from 7.5 million in fall 1994 to more than 7.7 million in fall 1995 (Table 2).

Elementary and secondary enrollment is expected to surpass the baby-boom generation's 1971 peak of 51 million students next year. The forecast is for 53 million students in 1997 and 55 million by 2002.

The nation's secondary schools (grades 9-12) should see a significant increase in enrollment this fall to more than 14 million, up from 13.6 million last year as the enrollment boom that hit elementary schools throughout the late 1980s moves into high schools. Continuing high school enrollment increases in grades 9-12 are expected into the early part of the next century.

The forecast says 32.8 percent of elementary and secondary school-age children in 1995 are of minority background, up from 28.2 percent in 1985. White school-aged children comprise 67.2 percent of enrollment, down from 71.8 percent in 1985 (Table 3).

The most rapidly growing group continues to be Hispanics, which has an increased enrollment share from 9.5 percent to 13 percent during the same period.

POSTSECONDARY ENROLLMENT INCREASES, TOO

Enrollments in public and private colleges and universities are expected to reach 14.4 million this fall, increasing slightly over last year. (Table 1). Of these students, almost 9 million will attend four-year schools and nearly 6 million will attend two-year schools. An additional one million students will attend proprietary schools and postsecondary training programs, increasing total postsecondary enrollment to more than 15.4 million. College enrollments are projected to jump more than 1.3 million students over the next seven years.

Overall, an estimated 7 million students will receive some type of federal financial aid next year.

EARNED DEGREES RISE

The number of associate, bachelor's and master's degrees earned at colleges and universities is expected to reach or surpass last year's all-time highs. Estimates are: 524,000 associate degrees; 1.2 million bachelor's degrees; and 393,000 master's degrees. Doctorates will equal last year's estimated total of 43,000; and first-professional degrees (medicine, theology, and law) are expected to increase to 83,000 (Table 7).

NUMBER OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES RISES

Following declines in the 1980s, the number of high school graduates will continue last year's upward trend with more than 2.6 million students expected to graduate in 1996 (Table 7). In the year 2000, about 3 million are expected to graduate, approaching 1977's peak of 3.2 million.

EDUCATION EMPLOYEES NUMBER EIGHT MILLION

About 3.8 million people will hold jobs as elementary and secondary school teachers and as college and university faculty. Another 4.2 million will work as administrative, other professional, and support staff for education institutions.

About 3 million elementary and secondary school teachers will teach in U.S. classrooms this fall (Table 4). And 833,000 college-level faculty members with the rank of instructor or above are expected to teach on the nation's campuses in 1995, slightly more than in 1994 (Table 4).

HIGHER EDUCATION SPENDING RISES

Colleges and universities will spend about $213 billion in 1995-96 (Table 5), up six percent over last year. Average spending per full-time (equivalent) college student for 1995-96 is forecast to reach $18,600, up more than 71 percent since 1985- 86. Public college spending will average $15,500 per student; for private colleges, spending will average $28,000.

EDUCATION SPENDING RISES SLIGHTLY

Public elementary, secondary, and higher education spending is expected to reach $433 billion this year, while $104 billion will be spent by private schools and colleges. Per pupil spending in elementary and secondary schools has increased only slightly in the '90s and is expected to average $6,300 per student. Average public teacher salaries are expected to reach $38,200 (Table 5). Last year's public school teacher salary averaged $36,933.

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More detailed education statistics may be obtained from the Digest of Education Statistics 1994, Projections of Education Statistics to 2005 and The Condition of Education 1995 prepared by the National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education. The publications may be ordered from the U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO) order desk by calling (202) 512- 1800. The Condition of Education 1995 provides statistical indicators, charts, and text which describe important trends in American education and is available from the GPO (# 065-000- 00791-6). Call for price. Also available from GPO are the Digest of Education Statistics 1994.