A r c h i v e d I n f o r m a t i o n

   FOR RELEASE                            Contact:  Melinda Kitchell    August 23, 1994                                    (202) 401-1008

1994 EDUCATION FORECAST: INCREASING ENROLLMENTS, WITH MORE GRADUATES, MORE DEGREES

The number of high school graduates will rise significantly next spring, reflecting increasing high school enrollments, according to the 1994 back-to-school forecast issued today by U.S. Secretary of Education Richard W. Riley.

These new graduates will be the leading edge of larger high school graduating classes expected for the rest of the decade.

"The importance of American education continues to grow," Riley said. "Under the new Goals 2000: Educate America Act, states and communities across the country will be at work this fall to make schools better.

"We see a new dedication to comprehensive reform, based on the knowledge that all children can learn more and all children can benefit from the challenge of high standards. We see a new willingness to engage in the hard work of improving teaching and learning."

The annual forecast also shows slightly higher college enrollments and continued increases in the nation's preschool and kindergarten enrollments. Also projected to increase are the number of associate, bachelor's and master's degrees.

Overall spending on education in the United States will reach $506.5 billion, up 4.6 percent since last year. "As a nation we make a tremendous investment in education," Riley said, "but money is not the only resource. If every caring adult would spend an hour day helping a child learn, it would transform the nation."

According to the Education Department's National Center for Education Statistics:

High school enrollment will climb from nearly 13.2 million in 1993-94 to more than 13.6 million in the coming year, up 3.6 percent while the number of high school graduates is expected to rise from 2.5 million to 2.6 million, up more than 5 percent.
A record number of students--nearly 14.7 million--will enroll in the nation's colleges and universities this fall. More students will earn associate, bachelor's, and master's degrees than ever before.
More than one in four Americans, or an estimated 72 million persons, will have a hand in education this year as a student, teacher, administrator, or as support staff. Nearly 65 million students will be enrolled and 8 million people employed in education.

EDUCATION SPENDING UP IN 1980s, FLAT IN 1990s

Public elementary, secondary and higher education spending is expected to reach $406.6 billion this year, and almost $100 billion will be spent by private schools and colleges. Per student spending in elementary and secondary schools is up almost 3 percent over last year but after adjusting for inflation, there has been little change in the '90s. Higher education spending per student is up 5 percent, but after inflation, is up only slightly.

Spending for elementary and secondary schools is expected to reach about $298.5 billion in 1994-95 ? up more than 40 percent in the last 10 years, after adjusting for inflation (see Table 5). In 1993-94, spending totaled $285.4 billion. Per student spending for public elementary and secondary schools is $5,900 in 1994-95, about level with $5,917 in 1993-94 (Table 6), when adjusted for inflation. The bulk of the expenditures will go to instruction, with the rest of current expenditures going to pay for food and services, transportation, school operation and maintenance, administration, and student services. Capital outlays and interest payments on school debt are excluded. With inflation taken into account, per student spending has grown 19 percent over the last 10 years. After adjusting for inflation, per student expenditures in the 1990s are flat.

Public school teacher salaries will average $37,200 ? about level with last year ? after allowing for inflation (Table 6). Public school teacher salaries averaged $35,958 in 1993-94.

ENROLLMENT UP; MINORITY GROWTH OUTPACES THAT OF WHITE STUDENTS

For 1994, 31.9 percent of elementary and secondary school-age children are of minority background, up from 26.7 percent in 1984. White school-age children comprise 68.1 percent of enrollment, down from 73.3 percent in 1984 (Table 3). The enrollment share of school-age Hispanics increased from 8.2 percent to 11.7 percent over the same time period.

Preschool enrollment has gone up by almost 33 percent over 10 years. The enrollment of three- to five-year-olds in preschool and kindergarten will rise by about 175,000 over last year, up from more than 6.6 million in fall 1993 to an estimate of more than 6.8 million for fall 1994 (Table 2).

Enrollment in elementary and secondary schools will total 49.8 million this year, and will likely continue to rise through the end of the decade in response to a trend in U.S. births evident since 1977. (An all-time high enrollment of 51.3 million, reached in 1971-72, is expected to be surpassed in 1996.)

Public and private elementary and secondary school enrollment (see Table 1) will continue to rise in 1994 as it has since 1985. Total elementary school enrollment (grades K-8) is expected to climb from 35.7 million last year to nearly 36.2 million this year.

The nation's high schools (grades 9-12) should see a significant enrollment rise this year to 13.6 million, up from 13.2 million last year. The growth in enrollment of elementary school students throughout the late 1980s has resulted in recent increased secondary school enrollment. Enrollment in grades 9-12 is expected to continue an upward climb into the early part of the next century.

NUMBER OF HIGH SCHOOL GRADUATES CLIMBS

For the first time in the '90s and after declines during most of the '80s, the number of high school graduates will climb by 5 percent in 1994-95. More than 2.6 million are expected to graduate in 1995 (see Table 7). In the peak year of 1977, nearly 3.2 million students graduated. In the year 2000, about 3 million graduates are expected.

NEARLY EIGHT MILLION WORK IN EDUCATION

This year, almost 3.8 million persons will hold jobs as elementary or secondary school teachers or as college or university faculty. Another 4.2 million will work as administrative, other professional, or support staff for educational institutions. More than 2.9 million elementary and secondary school teachers will teach in U.S. classrooms this fall (Table 4), up slightly from the number employed last year. About 848,000 college-level faculty members with the rank of instructor or above are expected to teach on the nation's campuses in 1994, slightly more than in 1993 (Table 4).

COLLEGE ENROLLMENT REACHES NEW HIGH

Public and private colleges and universities are expected to enroll a new high of 14.7 million students this fall (Table 1). Of those students, almost 9 million will attend four-year schools and nearly 6 million will attend two-year schools.

EARNED DEGREES REACH NEW HIGHS

The tally of associate, bachelor's, and master's degrees earned at colleges and universities is expected to reach an all- time high. Estimates are: associate degrees, 518,000; bachelor's degrees, 1,178,000; master's degrees, 377,000. Doctorates will equal last year's total of 41,000 and first-professional degrees (medicine, dentistry, theology and law) will match the 1985 high of 75,000 (see Table 7).

HIGHER EDUCATION SPENDING CLIMBS

In 1994-95, about $208 billion will be spent by the nation's public and private colleges and universities in total expenditures, including salaries, maintenance costs, capital outlays and operation of research facilities (see Table 5), up 4.7 percent over last year. In the past 10 years, higher education spending has climbed 48.5 percent, after adjusting for inflation. Average spending per full-time (equivalent) college student for 1994-95 is forecast to reach $17,200, up more than 20 percent since 1984-85, but reflecting only a modest increase in the 1990s. Public college spending will average $14,400 per student, while private college spending will average $25,700.

NOTE TO EDITORS: Attached are tables prepared by the National Center for Education Statistics.

More detailed education statistics may be obtained from the Digest of Education Statistics 1993, Projections of Education Statistics to 2004, and The Condition of Education 1994, prepared by the National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education. The publications may be ordered from the U.S. Government Printing Office (GPO) order desk by calling (202) 512- 1800. The Condition of Education 1994 provides statistical indicators, charts, and text which describe important trends in American education and is available from the GPO (# 065-000-00667- 7, $30. Also available from the GPO are the Digest of Education Statistics 1993, a detailed compendium of education data, (# 065- 000-00606-5, $33.00); and Projections of Education Statistics to 2004, a compilation of projections of key education statistics, (# 065-000-00608-1; $13.00).

        Table 1.-Enrollment in educational institutions, by level of        instruction, and by type of control:  Fall 1984 to fall 1994                             [In thousands]    _____________________________________________________________________    Level of instruction and  Fall     Fall     Fall     Fall     Fall        type of control       1984     1989    1992\1\  1993\2\  1994\2\    _____________________________________________________________________         All levels ........  57,150   59,436   62,601   63,424   64,519      Public ...............  48,685   51,121   54,122   54,803   55,754      Private ..............   8,465    8,316    8,478    8,621    8,765        Elementary and secondary     schools\3\ ............  44,908   45,898   48,109   48,824   49,819       Public ..............  39,208   40,543   42,735   43,353   44,254       Private .............   5,700    5,355    5,375    5,471    5,565           Kindergarten through        grade 8\4\..........  31,204   33,314   35,209   35,654   36,170         Public ............  26,905   29,152   30,997   31,374   31,837         Private ...........   4,300    4,162    4,212    4,280    4,333           Grades 9 through 12 .  13,704   12,583   12,901   13,170   13,649         Public ............  12,304   11,390   11,738   11,979   12,417         Private ...........   1,400    1,193    1,163    1,191    1,232        Higher education\5\ ....  12,242   13,539   14,491   14,600   14,700        Public .............   9,477   10,578   11,388   11,450   11,500        Private ............   2,765    2,961    3,104    3,150    3,200            4-year .............   7,711    8,388    8,768    8,830    8,900        2-year .............   4,531    5,151    5,723    5,770    5,800    _____________________________________________________________________    \1\Preliminary data.    \2\Estimated.    \3\Includes enrollments in local public school systems and in most    private schools (religiously affiliated and nonsectarian). Excludes    subcollegiate departments of institutions of higher education,    residential schools for exceptional children, and Federal schools.    \4\Includes most kindergarten and some nursery school enrollment.    Excludes kindergarten enrollment in schools that do not offer first    grade.  This undercount of kindergarten enrollment is particularly    significant for private schools.  According to data collected by the    U.S. Bureau of the Census, public and private kindergarten    enrollment of 3- to 5-year-olds was grew from 3.0 million in October    1983 to 3.6 million in October 1993.    \5\Includes full-time and part-time students enrolled in    degree-credit and nondegree-credit programs in universities, other    4-year colleges, and 2-year colleges.  Excludes students in    noncollegiate postsecondary institutions.

NOTE.-Because of rounding, details may not add to totals.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1994 (forthcoming); and Projections of Education Statistics to 2004. (This table was prepared July 1994.)

          Table 2.-Enrollment of 3- to 5-year-olds in prekindergarten and           kindergarten programs, by level and type of control:                       Fall 1984 to fall 1994                            [In thousands]    ___________________________________________________________________          Level and         Fall     Fall     Fall     Fall     Fall       type of control      1984     1989     1992    1993\1\  1994\1\    ___________________________________________________________________         All levels ......   5,480    6,026    6,402    6,581    6,756               Control    Public ...............   3,410    3,634    4,068    4,225    4,319    Private ..............   2,069    2,391    2,333    2,356    2,437                Level    Prekindergarten ......   2,335    2,824    2,856    2,984    3,096    Kindergarten .........   3,144    3,201    3,545    3,597    3,660    ___________________________________________________________________    \1\Estimated.

NOTE.-Data include all 3- to 5-year-olds enrolled in prekindergarten or kindergarten programs whether they are part of regular elementary schools offering first grade or not.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey, unpublished data; and U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, unpublished estimates. (This table was prepared July 1994.)

Table 3.-Enrollment of 5- to 17-year-olds in elementary and secondary schools, by level and by race/ethnicity: Fall 1984 to fall 1994 [Percentage distribution] _______________________________________________________________ Level and race/ethnicity Fall Fall Fall Fall Fall of student 1984 1989 1992 1993 1994\1\ _______________________________________________________________ Elementary and secondary schools\2\ .............. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 White, non-Hispanic ....... 73.3 69.6 68.7 68.5 68.1 Minority .................. 26.7 30.4 31.3 31.5 31.9 Black, non-Hispanic ..... 15.0 15.8 15.9 15.8 15.9 Hispanic ................ 8.2 10.6 11.2 11.5 11.7 Other, non-Hispanic ..... 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.2 4.3 Elementary\3\............ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 White, non-Hispanic ... 71.9 68.8 67.9 68.1 67.7 Minority .............. 28.1 31.2 32.1 31.9 32.3 Black, non-Hispanic . 15.5 16.0 16.2 16.0 16.0 Hispanic ............ 8.9 11.2 11.5 11.6 11.8 Other, non-Hispanic . 3.6 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.4 Secondary\4\............. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 White, non-Hispanic ... 76.3 71.8 70.7 69.5 69.1 Minority .............. 23.7 28.2 29.3 30.5 30.9 Black, non-Hispanic . 13.9 15.4 15.0 15.5 15.6 Hispanic ............ 6.6 9.2 10.4 11.2 11.4 Other, non-Hispanic . 3.1 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.9 _______________________________________________________________ \1\Estimated. \2\Includes enrollment of 5- to 17-year-old children in local public school systems and in private schools (religiously affiliated and nonsectarian). Excludes residential schools for exceptional children. \3\Includes 5- to 17-year-olds enrolled in prekindergarten through grade 8.

\4\Includes 5- to 17-year-olds enrolled in grades 9 through 12.

NOTE.-Because of rounding, details may not add to totals.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Current Population Survey, unpublished data; and Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, unpublished estimates. (This table was prepared July 1994.)

        Table 4.-Number of teachers and other staff in educational      institutions, by level of instruction and by type of control:                       Fall 1984 to fall 1994                            [In thousands]    ___________________________________________________________________      Level of instruction    Fall    Fall    Fall     Fall     Fall      and type of control     1984    1989   1992\1\  1993\2\  1994\2\    ___________________________________________________________________                                              Teachers                            ___________________________________________         All levels ........   3,225  3,503    3,655    3,712    3,768      Public ...............   2,673  2,934    3,043    3,095    3,141      Private ..............     552    569      613      617      627        Elementary and secon-     dary teachers\3\ ......   2,508  2,679    2,821    2,871    2,920       Public ..............   2,168  2,357    2,458    2,507    2,550       Private .............\2\  340    322 \2\  363      364      370           Elementary ..........   1,451  1,622    1,742    1,771    1,799          Public ...........   1,208  1,387    1,482    1,510    1,536          Private ..........\2\  243    235 \2\  260      261      263           Secondary ...........   1,057  1,057    1,079    1,100    1,122          Public ...........     960    970      976      997    1,014          Private ..........\2\   97     87 \2\  103      103      108        Higher education in-     structional faculty\4\ \2\  717    824 \2\  835      842      848       Public ..............\2\  505    577 \2\  585      588      591       Private .............\2\  212    247 \2\  250      253      257                            ___________________________________________                                               Other staff                            ___________________________________________         All levels ........     ---  3,903    4,087    4,180    4,200        Elementary and secondary     ---  2,254    2,347    2,380    2,400       Public ..............   1,894  2,074    2,157    2,180    2,200       Private\2\ ..........     ---    180      190      200      200        Higher education .......     ---  1,649    1,740    1,800    1,800       Public ..............     ---  1,143    1,220    1,250    1,250       Private .............     ---    505      520      550      550    ___________________________________________________________________    \1\Preliminary data.    \2\Estimated.    \3\Includes teachers in local public school systems and in most    private schools (religiously affiliated and nonsectarian).    Excludes subcollegiate departments of institutions of higher    education, residential schools for exceptional children, and    Federal schools.  Also excludes preprimary teachers in schools    without a first grade.  Teachers are reported in full-time    equivalents.    \4\Includes full-time and part-time faculty with the rank of    instructor or above in universities, other 4-year colleges, and    2-year colleges.    ---Data not available.

NOTE.-Because of rounding, details may not add to totals.

     Table 5.-Total expenditures of educational institutions, by level of          instruction and by type of control:  1984-85 to 1994-95                              [In billions]    _____________________________________________________________________                                            School year    Level of instruction ________________________________________________       type of control   1984-85 1989-90 1992-93\1\ 1993-94\1\ 1994-95\1\    _____________________________________________________________________                                         Unadjusted dollars            All levels ...... $247.7  $382.1     $462.7     $484.0    $506.5    Public ..............  200.7   309.2      372.2      388.8     406.6    Private .............   47.0    72.9       90.5       95.2      99.9        Elementary and secon-     dary expenditures ..  149.4   230.3      275.3      285.4     298.5        Public ..........  137.0   212.1      253.8      263.5     275.3        Private\1\ ......   12.4    18.2       21.5       21.9      23.2        Higher education     expenditures\2\ ....   98.3   151.8      187.4      198.6     208.0        Public ..........   63.7    97.1      118.4      125.3     131.3        Private\1\ ......   34.6    54.7       69.0       73.3      76.7                         ________________________________________________                                      Constant 1994-95 dollars\3\            All levels ...... $353.1  $453.8     $489.6     $499.2    $506.5    Public ..............  286.2   367.2      393.8      401.0     406.6    Private .............   66.9    86.5       95.8       98.2      99.9        Elementary and secon-     dary expenditures ..  213.0   273.5      291.3      294.3     298.5        Public ..........  195.3   251.9      268.5      271.8     275.3        Private\1\ ......   17.7    21.6       22.7       22.6      23.2        Higher education     expenditures\2\ ....  140.1   180.2      198.3      204.8     208.0        Public ..........   90.8   115.3      125.3      129.2     131.3        Private\1\ ......   49.3    64.9       73.0       75.6      76.7    _____________________________________________________________________    \1\Estimated.    \2\Includes current-fund expenditures and additions to plant value.    \3\Data adjusted by the Consumer Price Index, U.S. Department of    Labor.  The 1994-95 CPI estimate is derived from 1994 and 1995 data    from Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1995,    prepared by the Office of Management and Budget.

NOTE.-Because of rounding, details may not add to totals.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1994 (forthcoming); Projections of Education Statistics to 2004; and unpublished projections and estimates. (This table was prepared July 1994.)

            Table 6.-Current expenditure per student in educational insti-        tutions, by level of instruction and by type of control, and      average salary for  public school teachers:  1984-85 to 1994-95                      [In current and constant dollars]    _____________________________________________________________________    Level of instruction                     School year     and type of control ________________________________________________                         1984-85 1989-90 1992-93\1\ 1993-94\1\ 1994-95\1\    _____________________________________________________________________                                          Unadjusted dollars                         ________________________________________________    Expenditure per pupil     in public elementary      and secondary      schools\2\ ........ $3,470  $4,962     $5,604     $5,734    $5,900        Higher education     expenditure per     full-time-equivalent     student\3\ ......... 10,049  13,767     15,900     16,300    17,200      Public ............  8,724  11,635     13,200     13,700    14,400      Private ........... 13,955  20,290     24,200     24,500    25,700                         ________________________________________________                                    Constant 1994-95 dollars\4\                         ________________________________________________    Expenditure per pupil     in public elementary      and secondary      schools\2\ ........  4,948   5,893      5,929      5,914     5,900        Higher education     expenditure per     full-time-equivalent     student\3\ ......... 14,327  16,350     16,800     16,800    17,200      Public ............ 12,438  13,818     14,000     14,100    14,400      Private ........... 19,897  24,097     25,600     25,300    25,700                         ________________________________________________     Average salary for       public school     school teachers:\5\    Current dollars ..... 23,600  31,367     35,027     35,958    37,200    Constant 1994-95     dollars\4\ ......... 33,648  37,253     37,061     37,085    37,200    _____________________________________________________________________    \1\Estimated.    \2\Data represent current expenditures per pupil in average daily    attendance.    \3\Data represent current-fund expenditures per full-time-equivalent    student.    \4\Data adjusted by the Consumer Price Index, U.S. Department of    Labor.  The 1994-95 CPI estimate is based on 1994 and 1995 data in    Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1995, prepared    by the Office of Management and Budget.    \5\Data for 1984-85, 1989-90, 1992-93, and 1993-94 are from the    National Education Association.  The 1993-94 data are preliminary.

SOURCES: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, unpublished projections and estimates; and National Education Association, Estimates of School Statistics, 1993-94 (copyrighted 1994). (This table was prepared July 1994.)

          Table 7.-Number of graduates of educational institutions, by             level of education completed:  1984-85 to 1994-95                             [In thousands]    ___________________________________________________________________    Level of education                School year         completed     ________________________________________________                       1984-85 1989-90 1992-93\1\ 1993-94\1\ 1994-95\1\    ___________________________________________________________________    High school     graduates, total .  2,677   2,588      2,512      2,513     2,648      Male\1\ .........  1,291   1,285      1,202      1,202     1,267      Female\1\ .......  1,386   1,303      1,310      1,311     1,381      Public ..........  2,414   2,320      2,255      2,255     2,377      Private\1\ ......    263     268        257        258       271            College and        university         graduates        Associate degrees .    455     455        497        504       518      Male ............    203     191        207        210       216      Female ..........    252     264        290        294       302    Bachelor's degrees     979   1,051      1,145      1,165     1,178      Male ............    483     492        529        537       548      Female ..........    497     560        616        628       630    Master's degrees ..    286     324        364        370       377      Male ............    143     154        170        176       182      Female ..........    143     171        194        194       195    First-profes-     sional degrees\2\      75      71         74         75        75      Male ............     50      44         44         44        44      Female ..........     25      27         30         31        31    Doctor's degrees ..     33      38         41         41        41      Male ............     22      24         26         25        25      Female ..........     11      14         16         16        17    ___________________________________________________________________    \1\Estimated.  Distribution by sex based on surveys of the    civilian noninstitutional population conducted for the Bureau of    Labor Statistics.    \2\Includes degrees in medicine, optometry, osteopathic medicine,    pharmacy, podiatry, chiropractic, veterinary medicine, dentistry,    law, and theological professions.

NOTE.-Because of rounding, details may not add to totals.